Winter wheat production forecast at 1,492 million bus

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. 2009 winter wheat production was forecast at 1,491,769,000 bus, down 10,305,000 bus, or less than 1%, from the initial May forecast of 1,502,074,000 bus and down 376,134,000 bus, or 20%, from 1,867,903,000 bus in 2008, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its June Crop Production report this morning. (Click here for full U.S.D.A. report.)

The U.S.D.A. production number was slightly below analysts’ pre-report trade expectations, which averaged near 1,496 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. forecast winter wheat yield at 43.9 bus per acre based on conditions as of June 1, compared with 44.2 bus forecast in May and 47.2 bus last year. Harvested area was forecast at 33,995,000 acres, unchanged from May but down 14% from 39,614,000 acres a year ago.

Production of hard red winter wheat was forecast at 867,596,000 bus, down 3,798,000 bus from 871,394,000 bus forecast in May and down 167,639,000 bus, or 16%, from 1,035,235,000 bus in 2008. Soft red winter outturn was forecast at 415,433,000 bus, down 6,880,000 bus, or 2%, from 422,313,000 bus in May and down 198,145,000 bus, or 32%, from 613,578,000 bus last year. White winter wheat production was forecast at 208,740,000 bus, up 373,000 bus from 208,367,000 bus in May and down 10,350,000 bus, or 5%, from 219,090,000 bus a year ago, including soft white winter at 187,676,000 bus, down 4% from last year and hard white winter at 21,064,000 bus, down 7%.

Total winter durum production in Arizona and California was estimated at 26,625,000 bus, up 1,350,000 bus, or 5%, from 25,275,000 in May but down 14% from 30,877,000 bus in 2008, the U.S.D.A. said.

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