U.S. 2012 corn crop at 10,779 million bus

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. 2012 corn production was forecast at 10,778,589,000 bus, down 13% from 12,358,412,000 bus in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said it is Aug. 10 Crop Production report. Soybean production was forecast at 2,692,014,000 bus, down 12% from 3,056,032,000 bus last year. All-wheat production was forecast at 2,268,246,000 bus, up 2% from 2,224,075,000 bus in July and up 13% from 1,999,347,000 bus in 2011.

If realized, corn production would be the lowest since 10,531,123,000 bus in 2006, the U.S.D.A. said. It was the first U.S.D.A. survey-based forecast of the season for corn, soybeans and other row crops.

The U.S.D.A. corn number was below the average pre-report trade estimate of 10,971 million bus. The soybean number was below the pre-report average of about 2,786 million bus. The all-wheat number was above the average analyst estimate of 2,220 million bus.

Based on Aug. 1 conditions, corn yield was forecast at 123.4 bus an acre, down 23.8 bus from 147.2 bus an acre in 2011 and the lowest since 113.5 bus an acre in 1995, the U.S.D.A. said. Harvested area was forecast at 87,361,000 acres, down 2% from 88,851,000 acres in the previous forecast but up 4% from 83,981,000 acres in 2011.

Soybean yield was forecast at 36.1 bus an acre, down 5.4 bus from 41.5 bus an acre in 2011 and the lowest since 33.9 bus an acre in 2003. Harvested area was forecast at 74,635,000 acres, down 1% from 75,315,000 acres forecast previously but up 1% from 73,636,000 acres in 2011.

All-wheat average yield was forecast at 46.5 bus an acre, up 0.9 bus from 45.6 bus an acre in July and up 2.8 bus from 43.7 bus an acre in 2011. Harvested area was forecast at 48,826,000 acres, unchanged from July but up 7% from 45,705,000 acres in 2011.

Production of spring wheat other than durum was forecast at 499,510,000 bus, up 6% from 471,769,000 bus forecast in July and up 10% from 455,188,000 bus a year ago. The average yield was forecast at 42.8 bus an acre, up 2.4 bu from 40.4 bus an acre in July and up 5.1 bus from 37.7 bus in 2011. Harvested area was forecast at 11,681,000 acres, unchanged from July but down 3% from 12,079,000 acres a year ago.

Production of hard red spring wheat was forecast at 462,582,000 bus, up 6% from 435,485,000 bus in July and up 16% from 397,689,000 bus in 2011. Soft white spring wheat outturn was forecast at 29,707,000 bus, up 2% from 29,238,000 bus in July but down 35% from 45,621,000 bus in 2011. Hard white spring wheat production was forecast at 7,221,000 bus, up 2% from 7,046,000 bus in July but down 39% from 11,878,000 bus a year ago.

Durum outturn was forecast at 86,010,000 bus, up 5% from 81,960,000 bus in July and up 70% from 50,482,000 bus in 2011. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, durum yield was forecast at 40.5 bus an acre, up 1.9 bus from 38.6 bus an acre in July and up 2.0 bus from 38.5 bus an acres in 2011, the U.S.D.A. said.

Harvested area was forecast at 2,122,000 acres, unchanged from July but up 62% from 1,312,000 acres a year ago.

The U.S.D.A. forecast winter wheat production at 1,682,726,000 bus, up 1% from 1,670,346,000 bus in July and up 13% from 1,493,677,000 bus in 2011. Winter wheat yield was forecast at a record high 48.0 bus an acre based on conditions as of Aug. 1, up 0.3 bus from 47.7 bus in July and up 1.8 bus from 46.2 bus an acre last year. Harvested area was forecast at 35,023,000 acres, unchanged from July and up 8% from 32,314,000 acres a year ago.

Hard red winter wheat production was forecast at 1,012,141,000 bus, up slightly from 1,009,656,000 bus in July and up 30% from 780,089,000 bus in 2011.

Soft red winter production was forecast at 435,059,000 bus, up 1% from 429,027,000 bus in July but down 5% from 457,535,000 bus in 2011.

Soft white winter wheat outturn was forecast at 221,659,000 bus, up 2% from 217,616,000 bus in July but down 9% from 243,685,000 bus in 2011. Hard white outturn was forecast at 13,867,000 bus, down 1% from 14,047,000 bus in July but up 12% from 12,368,000 bus last year.

In its first survey-based rice crop forecast of the season, the U.S.D.A. estimated 2012 U.S. rice production at 189,972,000 cwts, up 3% from 185,009,000 cwts in 2011.

Sorghum production in 2012 was forecast at 247,627,000 bus, up 15% from 214,443,000 bus in 2011.

The U.S.D.A. forecast 2012 oats production at 66,519,000 bus, up 2% from 65,276,000 bus in July and up 24% from 53,649,000 bus in 2011, which was the lowest on record.

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