World 2012-13 wheat ending stocks up 2% from November

by Laura Lloyd
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WASHINGTON — World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 were projected at 176.95 million tonnes, up 2.77 million tonnes, or about 2%, from 174.18 million tonnes in November but down 18.82 million tonnes, or 10%, from a downwardly revised 195.77 million tonnes in 2011-12, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Dec. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 754 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 7%, from 704 million bus as the November projection and up 11 million bus, or 1%, from 743 million bus in 2012. The projected U.S.D.A. 2013 wheat carryover was above the average expected by the trade that was 718 million bus.

“Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 are raised 50 million bushels reflecting lower prospects for exports again this month,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Projected exports are lowered 50 million bushels reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and higher expected competition from foreign supplies.”

Global 2012-13 wheat production was projected at 655.11 million tonnes, up   3.68 million tonnes from November but down 41.32 million tonnes, or 6%, from an upwardly revised 696.43 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 673.93 million tonnes, down 1.21 million tonnes from November and down 24.51 million tonnes, or 4%, from an upwardly revised 698.44 million tonnes in 2011-12. World exports were projected at 132.77 million tonnes, up 80,000 tonnes from 132.69 million tonnes in November but down 24.88 million tonnes, or 16%, from an upwardly revised 157.65 million tonnes in the prior year.

“Global wheat supplies for 2012-13 are projected 1.6 million tonnes higher as a 3.7-million-tonne increase in world production more than offsets lower beginning stocks mostly reflecting higher 2011-12 wheat feeding for China,” the U.S.D.A. said. “China wheat production for 2012-13 is raised 2.6 million tonnes based on the latest official estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics. Production for Australia and Canada are raised 1.0 million tonnes and 0.5 million tonnes, respectively, also based on the latest official government estimates. Partly offsetting these increases are small reductions for Brazil and EU-27.”

The U.S.D.A. reported the same or higher ending stocks for several countries that compete for export business with the United States.

Australia’s 2012-13 ending stocks were projected at 5.76 million tonnes, up 1.12 million tonnes from 4.64 million tonnes in November and down 1.22 million tonnes, or 17%, from an upwardly revised 6.98 million tonnes in 2012. Projected 2012-13 wheat exports from Australia were raised 500,000 tonnes from November to 17 million tonnes, but were down 7.69 million tonnes, or 31%, from 24.69 million tonnes in 2011-12.

Russia’s 2012-13 ending stocks were projected at 5.89 million tonnes, up 950,000 tonnes from 4.94 million tonnes in November but down 5 million tonnes, or 46%, from an upwardly revised 10.89 million tonnes in 2012. Russia’s projected exports in 2012-13 were unchanged from November at 10 million tonnes.

Ukraine’s 2012-13 ending stocks were projected at 2.96 million tonnes, the same as in November but down 2.2 million tonnes, or 43%, from 5.16 million tonnes in 2012. Ukraine’s projected 2012-13 exports were unchanged from November at 6 million tonnes.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2012-13 wheat exports from India at 6.5 million tonnes, up 500,000 tonnes from November and up sharply from 890,000 tonnes last year. Exports from the E.U.-27 were raised 500,000 tonnes from November to 18 million tonnes, while Canadian exports were unchanged at 19 million tonnes.

World 2012-13 corn ending stocks were projected at 117.61 million tonnes, down 380,000 tonnes from 117.99 million tonnes in November and down 13.43 million tonnes, or 10%, from a downwardly revised 131.04 million tonnes in 2012.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 647 million bus, the same as in November and down 341 million bus, or 35%, from 988 million bus estimated in 2012. The U.S.D.A. 2013 corn carryover number was below the average of trade expectations of 666 million bus.

Global 2012-13 soybean ending stocks were projected at 59.93 million tonnes, down 90,000 tonnes from 60.02 million tonnes in November but up 3.93 million tonnes, or 7%, from 56 million tonnes in 2012.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 130 million bus, down 10 million bus, or 7%, from 140 million bus in November, but down 39 million bus, or 23%, from 169 million bus estimated in 2012. The U.S.D.A. 2013 soybean carryover was below the average of trade estimates of 135 million bus.

World rice ending stocks were projected at 102.54 million tonnes for 2012-13, up 290,000 tonnes from 102.25 million tonnes in November but down 3.16 million tonnes, or 3%, from a downwardly revised 105.7 million tonnes in 2011-12.
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