U.S. 2012-13 sugar supply, carryover raised

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2013, at 2,202,000 short tons, raw value, up 152,000 tons, or 7%, from 2,050,000 tons as the December projection and up 217,000 tons, or 11%, from a slightly upwardly revised 1,985,000 tons estimated for 2012.

The ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2012-13 was projected at 18.7%, up from 17.4% projected in December, equal to the November number and above 17.2% estimated for 2011-12. Stocks-to-use ratios for both years are above the top end of the U.S.D.A.’s “target” range.

For 2011-12, which ended Sept. 30, the U.S.D.A. raised estimated beet sugar production 1,000 tons, to 4,900,000 tons, resulting in like increases in total U.S. sugar production at 8,488,000 tons. Estimated imports were unchanged from December at 3,631,000 tons. Estimated 2011-12 deliveries were reduced by 1,000 tons, to 11,243,000 tons. Ending stocks were raised 2,000 tons, to 1,985,000 tons, for 2011-12.

For 2012-13, U.S. beet sugar production was forecast at 5,200,000 tons, unchanged from December. Projected cane sugar production was increased by 150,000 tons, due to a like increase if forecast Louisiana output. Total U.S. sugar production was forecast at 9,070,000 tons, also up 150,000 tons from December.

Projected 2012-13 imports were unchanged from December, resulting in total supply at 13,967,000 tons, up 152,000 tons from December based on higher beginning stocks and domestic production.

Total domestic deliveries were projected at 11,590,000 tons for 2012-13, unchanged from December. Total sugar use in 2012-13 was projected at 11,765,000 tons, also unchanged from December.

For Mexico, the U.S.D.A. did not revise any 2011-12 or 2012-13 supply or use estimates.
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