U.S. 2013 wheat carryover down 3% from January

by Ron Sterk
Share This:
Search for similar articles by keyword: [Corn], [Soybean], [Wheat]

WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 691 million bus, down 25 million bus, or 3%, from 716 million bus as the January projection due to a projected 25-million-bu increase in feed and residual use, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

“Feed and residual use is projected 25 million bus higher as weaker cash prices relative to corn support opportunities for increased wheat use in livestock and poultry rations,” the U.S.D.A. said.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 wheat carryover was below the average expected by the trade that was near 728 million bus. Wheat futures prices traded higher in Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis immediately after the report but later turned mixed.

Except for the increase in feed and residual use and the corresponding decrease in ending stocks, U.S.D.A. numbers for “all wheat” were unchanged from the January WASDE.

U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 2,269 million bus in 2012, unchanged from January and up 270 million bus, or 14%, from 1,999 million bus in 2012. Imports were unchanged from January at 130 million bus but up 18 million bus from 2011-12. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,142 million bus for 2012-13, unchanged from January but up 168 million bus, or 6%, from 2,974 million bus in 2011-12.

Feed and residual use was projected at 375 million bus, up 25 million bus from January and up 211 million bus, or 129%, from 164 million bus in 2011-12. Seed use was projected at 75 million bus, unchanged from January but down 1 million bus from 2011-12.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 at 950 million bus, unchanged from January but up 9 million bus, or 1%, from 941 million bus in 2011-12.

Total domestic use was projected at 1,400 million bus, up 25 million bus from January and up 218 million bus, or 18%, from 1,182 million bus in 2011-12.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1,050 million bus, unchanged from January and also equal to the estimated 2011-12 outgo.

Total use of wheat in 2012-13 was projected at 2,450 million bus, up 25 million bus from 2,425 million bus in January and up 219 million bus, or 10%, from 2,231 million bus last year.

The average price of wheat was projected to range from $7.70@8.10 a bu in 2012-13, compared with $7.65@8.15 projected for the year in January.

The U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2013, carryover of hard winter wheat at 304 million bus, up 15 million bus from January but down 13 million bus from 317 million bus in 2012. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 133 million bus, down 35 million bus from January and down 52 million bus from 185 million bus in 2012.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 175 million bus, up 5 million bus from January and up 24 million bus from 151 million bus in 2012. White wheat carryover was projected at 42 million bus, down 10 million bus from January and down 22 million bus from 2012.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 37 million bus, unchanged from January but up 12 million bus from 25 million bus in 2012.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 632 million bus, up 30 million bus, or 5%, from 602 million bus in January but down 357 million bus, or 36%, from 989 million bus in 2012, the U.S.D.A. said.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 corn carryover number was above the average of trade expectations of 615 million bus. Corn futures traded slightly lower after the 11:00 a.m. Central Time release of the U.S.D.A. data.

Projected corn supply numbers for 2012-13 were unchanged from January. U.S. corn production in 2012 was estimated at 10,780 million bus, unchanged from January but down 13% from 12,360 million bus in 2011.

U.S. corn imports in 2012-13 were projected at 100 million bus, unchanged from January but up 71 million bus from 29 million bus in 2011-12. Total supply for 2012-13 was projected at 11,869 million bus, unchanged from January but down 1,647 million bus, or 12%, from 13,516 million bus in 2011-12.

Projected feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 4,450 million bus, unchanged from January but down 98 million bus, or 2%, from 4,548 million bus in 2011-12.

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 5,887 million bus, up 20 million bus from January (including corn for ethanol unchanged at 4,500 million bus and food and seed use up 20 million bus at 1,387 million bus), but down 550 million bus, or 9%, from 6,437 million bus in 2011-12 (which included 5,011 million bus for ethanol and 1,426 million bus for food and seed).

“Corn use for ethanol production is unchanged, but corn use for sweeteners and starch is raised 20 million bus, boosting projected food, seed and industrial use,” the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S. corn exports in 2012-13 were projected at 900 million bus, down 50 million bus, or 5%, from 950 million bus in January and down 643 million bus, or 42%, from 1,543 million bus in 2011-12.

Total use of corn in 2012-13 was projected at 11,237 million bus, down 30 million bus from the January forecast and down 1,290 million bus, or 10%, from 12,527 million bus in 2011-12.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $6.75@7.65 a bu in 2012-13, compared with $6.80@8 projected in January.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 125 million bus, down 10 million bus from 135 million bus in January and down 44 million bus, or 26%, from 169 million bus in 2012.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 soybean carryover was below the average trade expectation that was near 129 million bus. Soybean futures prices were lower after the report.

U.S. soybean production in 2012 was estimated at 3,015 million bus, unchanged from January but down 79 million bus, or 3%, from 3,094 million bus in 2011.

Soybean imports in 2012-13 were unchanged from January at 20 million bus, up 4 million bus from 2011-12.

Total soybean supply in 2012-13 was projected at 3,204 million bus, unchanged from January but down 121 million bus, or 4%, from 3,325 million bus in 2011-12.

Projected 2012-13 U.S. soybean crush was forecast at 1,615 million bus, up 10 million bus from 1,605 million bus in January but still down 88 million bus, or 5%, from 1,703 million bus crushed in 2011-12.

Exports were projected at 1,345 million bus, unchanged from January but down 17 million bus, or 1%, from 1,362 million bus in 2011-12.

Total use was projected at 3,080 million bus, up 10 million bus from 3,070 million bus in January but down 75 million bus, or 2%, from 3,155 million bus as the estimated use in 2011-12.

The average price paid to farmers for soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $13.55@15.05 a bu, up 5c from $13.50@15 a bu projected in January.
Comment on this Article
We welcome your thoughtful comments. Please comply with our Community rules.

 

 


The views expressed in the comments section of Food Business News do not reflect those of Food Business News or its parent company, Sosland Publishing Co., Kansas City, Mo. Concern regarding a specific comment may be registered with the Editor by clicking the Report Abuse link.