U.S. wheat carryover, winter crop top expectations

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. 2013 winter wheat production was forecast at 1,509 million bus, up 23 million bus, or about 2%, from 1,486 million bus forecast in May but down 136 million bus, or 8%, from 1,645 million bus in 2012, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its June 12 Crop Production report. U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2014, was projected at 659 million bus, down 11 million bus, or 2%, from 670 million bus as the May projection and down 87 million bus, or 12%, from 746 million bus on June 1, 2013, the U.S.D.A. said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, also released June 12.

The U.S.D.A. winter wheat production number was above analysts’ pre-report trade expectations that averaged near 1,457 million bus. The 2013-14 carryover projection also was above the average trade estimate of 634 million bus.

Winter wheat futures traded lower after the reports were released.

Production of hard red winter wheat was forecast at 781 million bus, up 2% from 768 million bus forecast in May, soft red winter at 509 million bus, up 2% from 501 million bus in May, and white winter at 219 million bus, up 1% from 217 million bus in May.

The U.S.D.A. numbers were above pre-report trade expectations averaging near 743 million bus for hard red winter wheat, 506 million bus for soft red winter and 208 million bus for white winter.

In its WASDE report, the U.S.D.A. projected total U.S. wheat production in 2013 at 2,080 million bus, up from 2,057 million bus as the May projection and down 189 million bus, or 8%, from 2,269 million bus in 2012, based on a combination of survey-based winter wheat data and trend data for spring wheat.

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