U.S. 2014 sugar carryover down 25% from June

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its July 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2014, at 2,013,000 short tons, raw value, down 667,000 tons, or 25%, from its June projection and down 206,000 tons, or 9%, from 2,219,000 tons forecast for Oct. 1, 2013, which was lowered 12,000 tons from the June forecast.

The 2013-14 ending stocks-to-use ratio was projected at 16.8%, down from 22.4% as the June projection and compared with 18.8% as the 2012-13 ratio, which was down from 19% in June.

For 2012-13, the U.S.D.A. left domestic production unchanged but increased imports 58,000 tons based on a 51,000-ton reduction in tariff rate quota imports more than offset by a 109,000-ton increase in imports from Mexico, which were up 6% from June, up 77% from 2011-12 and would be record high.

Total 2013-14 U.S. sugar production was projected at 8,643,000 tons, up 59,000 tons from June but down 372,000 tons, or 4%, from 9,015,000 tons in 2012-13. The U.S.D.A. projected beet sugar production at 4,890,000 tons, up 50,000 tons from June, and cane sugar production at 3,753,000 tons, up 9,000 tons.

U.S. imports in 2013-14 were projected at 3,116,000 tons, down 694,000 tons, or 18%, from 3,810,000 tons as the June projection, but up 92,000 tons, or 3%, from 3,024,000 tons in 2012-13. T.R.Q. imports were projected at 1,122,000 tons, down 143,000 tons, or 11%, from June, but up 133,000 tons, or 13%, from 989,000 tons in 2012-13. Other program imports were projected at 125,000 tons, down 275,000 tons, or 69%, from 400,000 tons in June and unchanged from 2012-13. Imports from Mexico were projected at 1,859,000 tons, down 276,000 tons, or 13%, from 2,135,000 tons in June and down 41,000 tons from 1,900,000 tons in 2012-13.

Total sugar supply was projected at 13,978,000 tons, down 647,000 tons, or 4%, from 14,625,000 tons in June and down 46,000 tons from 14,024,000 tons in the current year.

Total domestic sugar deliveries were projected at 11,765,000 tons in 2013-14, up 20,000 tons from June and up 160,000 tons, or 1%, from 11,605,000 tons in 2012-13. Sugar deliveries for food and miscellaneous were projected at 11,580,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from June and up 110,000 tons from 11,470,000 tons in the current year. U.S. sugar exports in 2013-14 were projected at 200,000 tons, unchanged from June and from the current year. Total sugar use was projected at 11,965,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from June and up 160,000 tons from 11,805,000 tons in 2012-13.

Sugar production in Mexico was estimated at 6,990,000 tonnes, actual weight, in 2012-13, up 150,000 tonnes from the June estimate. Domestic use in 2012-13 was projected at 4,775,000 tonnes, up 235,000 tonnes from June, exports at 1,811,000 tonnes, up 93,000 tonnes, and ending stocks at 1,507,000 tonnes, down 178,000 tonnes.

Sugar production in Mexico in 2013-14 was projected at 5,887,000 tonnes, actual weight, unchanged from the June projection and down 1,103,000 tonnes, or 16%, from 2012-13. Imports were unchanged from June and from 2012-13 at 137,000 tonnes. Domestic use next year was projected at 4,840,000 tonnes, up 240,000 tonnes, or 5%, from June and up 65,000 tonnes, or 1%, from 2012-13. Exports were projected at 1,701,000 tonnes, down 236,000 tonnes, or 12%, from 1,937,000 tonnes in June and down 110,000 tonnes, or 6%, from the current year. Projected 2013-14 ending stocks were 990,000 tonnes, down 182,000 tonnes, or 16%, from 1,172,000 tonnes projected in June and down 517,000 tonnes, or 34%, from 1,507,000 tonnes forecast for 2012-13.

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