WASDE: U.S. 2015 wheat carryover up 35 million bus

by Laura Lloyd
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Sept. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2015, at 698 million bus, up 35 million bus, or 5%, from 663 million bus projected in August, and up 108 million bus, or 18%, from 590 million bus on June 1, 2014.

U.S.D.A. 2015 wheat carryover number was above the average trade expectation of 664 million bus.

Total wheat production in 2014 was estimated at 2,030 million bus, unchanged from August and down from 2,130 million bus in 2013. Wheat imports in 2014-15 were projected at 170 million bus, compared with 160 million bus in August and 169 million bus last year. Total wheat supply was projected at 2,789 million bus, up 10 million bus from August but down 227 million bus, or 8%, from 3,016 million bus last year.

Total wheat use in 2014-15 was projected at 2,091 million bus, down 25 million bus from August and compared with 2,426 million bus in 2013-14. Feed and residual use was projected at 155 million bus, unchanged from August and down 67 million bus from 2013-14. Wheat exports were projected at 900 million bus, down 25 million bus from 925 million bus in August and down 276 million bus, or 23%, from 1,176 million bus in 2013-14.

Hard red winter wheat carryover on June 1, 2015, was projected at 201 million bus, up 15 million bus from August but down 34 million bus from 235 million bus in 2014. Soft red winter carryover was projected at 191 million bus, down 5 million bus from August but up 77 million bus from 114 million bus this year. Hard red spring wheat carryover was projected at 230 million bus, up 20 million bus from August and up 61 million bus from 169 million bus in 2014. Durum carryover was forecast at 24 million bus, unchanged from August but up 2 million bus from 2014. White wheat carryover was projected at 52 million bus, up 5 million bus from August and up 2 million bus from 2014.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was projected at 2,002 million bus, up 194 million bus, or 11%, from August and up 821 million bus, or 70%, from 1,181 million bus estimated on Sept. 1, 2014. The U.S.D.A. 2015 projection was slightly below the trade average forecast of 2,004 million bus.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was projected at 475 million bus, up 45 million bus, or 10%, from 430 million bus projected in August and up 345 million bus, or 265%, from 130 million bus estimated on Sept. 1, 2014. The U.S.D.A. 2015 projection was above the trade average forecast near 452 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2014-15 global ending stocks of wheat at 196.38 million tonnes, compared with 192.96 million tonnes projected in August and 186.45 million tonnes estimated for 2013-14.

World wheat production for 2014-15 was projected at a record 719.95 million tonnes, compared with 716.09 million tonnes in August and 714.05 million tonnes in 2013-14, consumption at 710.01 million tonnes, compared with 706.79 million tonnes in August and 703.20 million tonnes the prior year, and exports at 154.83 million tonnes, compared with 151.80 million tonnes in August and 166.31 million tonnes last year.

World corn ending stocks were projected at 189.91 million tonnes for 2014-15 compared with 187.82 million tonnes projected in August and 173.08 million tonnes in 2013-14.

World soybean ending stocks for 2014-15 were projected at 90.17 million tonnes compared with 85.62 million tonnes in August and 66.91 million tonnes in 2013-14.
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