U.S.D.A. grain forecasts below expectations

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — Key numbers in the U.S. Department of Agriculture Oct. 10 Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports were below the average of pre-report expectations from the trade. Still, corn and soybean futures prices declined while wheat futures posted gains after the reports were released.

U.S. 2014 corn production was forecast at 14,475 million bus, up 80 million bus from 14,395 million bus forecast in September and up 4% from 13,925 million bus in 2013. Based on Oct. 1 conditions, corn yield was forecast at 174.2 bus an acre, up 2.5 bus from September and up 15.4 bus from 158.8 bus an acre in 2013, the U.S.D.A. said. Harvested area was forecast at 83,097,000 acres, down 1% from September and down 5% from 2013.

Soybean production was forecast at 3,927 million bus, up 14 million bus from 3,913 million bus forecast in September and up 17% from an upwardly revised 3,358 million bus last year. Soybean yield was forecast at 47.1 bus an acre, up 0.5 bu from September and up 3.1 bus from an upwardly revised 44 bus an acre in 2013. Harvested area was forecast at 83,403,000 acres, down less than 1% from September but up 9% from 2013.

The U.S.D.A. corn production and yield numbers were below the average pre-report trade estimate of 14,523 million bus and 174.7 bus an acre, respectively. The soybean numbers also were below the pre-report trade averages of 3,977 million bus for production and 47.6 bus per acre.

If realized, corn and soybean production and average yields all would be record high, the U.S.D.A. said.

The U.S.D.A. in its Oct. 10 WASDE report projected carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2015, at 654 million bus, down 44 million bus, or 6%, from 698 million bus projected in September, but up 64 million bus, or 11%, from 590 million bus on June 1, 2014

U.S.D.A. 2015 wheat carryover number was below the average trade expectation of 704 million bus.

Hard red winter wheat carryover on June 1, 2015, was projected at 192 million bus, down 9 million bus from September and down 44 million bus from 236 million bus in 2014. Soft red winter carryover was projected at 162 million bus, down 29 million bus from September but up 49 million bus from 113 million bus this year. Hard red spring wheat carryover was projected at 247 million bus, up 17 million bus from September and up 78 million bus from 169 million bus in 2014. Durum carryover was forecast at 16 million bus, down 8 million bus from September and down 6 million bus from 2014. White wheat carryover was projected at 37 million bus, down 15 million bus from September and down 13 million bus from 2014.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was projected at 2,081 million bus, up 79 million bus, or 4%, from September and up 845 million bus, or 68%, from an upwardly revised 1,236 million bus on Sept. 1, 2014. The U.S.D.A. 2015 projection was below the trade average forecast of 2,144 million bus.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was projected at 450 million bus, down 25 million bus, or 5%, from 475 million bus projected in September but up 358 million bus from a downwardly revised 92 million bus on Sept. 1, 2014. The U.S.D.A. 2015 projection was below the trade average forecast near 478 million bus.
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