U.S. wheat carryover down 7 million bus from March

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture on April 9 forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2015, at 684 million bus, down 7 million bus, or 1%, from the March projection but up 94 million bus, or 16%, from 590 million bus in 2014. The adjustment was the result of lower exports more than offset by lower imports and higher seed, feed and residual use in 2014-15.

The U.S.D.A. carryover number was below the average trade expectation of 690 million bus.

Imports in 2014-15 were forecast at 145 million bus, down 15 million bus from the March forecast and down 24 million bus from 2013-14. Imports of durum were lowered 10 million bus and of hard red spring wheat 5 million bus, the U.S.D.A. indicated. As a result, total wheat supply in 2014-15 was lowered 15 million bus to 2,761 million bus. Beginning stocks at 590 million bus and 2014 production at 2,026 million bus were unchanged from March.

Total wheat use in 2014-15 was forecast at 2,077 million bus, down 8 million bus from March and down 354 million bus, or 15%, from 2,431 million bus in 2013-14. Domestic use was raised 12 million bus to 1,197 million bus as the result of a 2-million-bu increase in seed use, at 77 million bus, and a 10-million-bu increase in feed and residual, at 160 million bus. Food use of wheat was unchanged from March at 960 million bus.

The feed and residual use was raised on higher disappearance during the December-February and September-November periods indicated in the March 31 Grain Stocks report, the U.S.D.A. said.

Wheat exports in 2014-15 were forecast at 880 million bus, down 20 million bus, or 2%, from March and down 296 million bus, or 25%, from 1,176 million bus in the prior year.

“The all wheat export projection is lowered 20 million bus on continued strong competition in global markets,” the U.S.D.A. said. “This would be the lowest export total since 2009-10.”

The average price for wheat paid to farmers in 2014-15 was forecast at $6 to $6.10 a bu, compared with $5.90 to $6.10 forecast in March and $6.87 in 2013-14.

The U.S.D.A. forecast 2014-15 carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2015, at 1,827 million bus, up 50 million bus from the March projection and up 595 million bus, or 48%, from 1,232 million bus in 2013-14.

The only change in the U.S.D.A.’s corn numbers was a 50-million-bu reduction from March in forecast feed and residual use, at 5,250 million bus, which still was up 214 million bus, or 4%, from 5,036 million bus in 2013-14.

The change in feed and residual reflected lower December-February corn disappearance indicated in the Grain Stocks report, the U.S.D.A. said.

Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was forecast at 370 million bus, down 15 million bus from the March forecast but up 278 million bus, or about 300%, from 92 million bus in 2013-14.

The change reflected a 5-million-bu increase from March in forecast 2014-15 imports, at 30 million bus, more than offset by a 6-million-bu increase in seed use, at 98 million bus, and a 14-million-bu increase in residual, at 38 million bus. Domestic crushings were unchanged from March at 1,795 million bus, as were exports, at 1,790 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. corn and soybean carryover numbers compared with the average trade estimate of 1,851 million bus for corn and 371 million bus for soybeans.
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