U.S. corn crop seen down 4% from 2014

by Ron Sterk
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U.S. 2015 corn production was forecast at 13,686 million bus.

WASHINGTON — U.S. 2015 corn production was forecast at 13,686 million bus, down 4% from 14,216 million bus in 2014, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Aug. 12 Crop Production report. Soybean production was forecast at 3,916 million bus, down 1% from 3,969 million bus last year. All-wheat production was forecast at 2,136 million bus, down less than 1% from 2,148 million bus in July but up 5% from 2,026 million bus in 2014.

The U.S.D.A. corn number was above the average pre-report trade estimate of 13,318 million bus. The soybean number also was above the pre-report average of about 3,719 million bus. The all-wheat number was below the average analyst estimate of 2,161 million bus.

Corn, wheat and soy complex futures traded sharply lower after the U.S.D.A. Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports on higher-than-expected yield and production forecasts for corn and soybeans and lower export forecasts from July for corn, soybeans and wheat.

Based on Aug. 1 conditions, corn yield was forecast at 168.8 bus an acre, down 2.2 bus from 171 bus an acre in 2014, the U.S.D.A. said. Harvested area was forecast at 81,101,000 acres, unchanged from the June Acreage report but down 2% from 83,136,000 acres in 2014. If realized, corn production would be the third largest on record and yield would be the second highest on record.

Soybean yield was forecast at 46.9 bus an acre, down 0.9 bus from 47.8 bus an acre in 2014. Harvested area was forecast at a record 83,549,000 acres, down 1% from June but up about 1% from 83,061,000 acres in 2014.

All-wheat average yield was forecast at 44.1 bus an acre, down 0.2 bu from 44.3 bus in July but up 0.4 bu from 43.7 bus an acre in 2014. Harvested area was estimated at 48,454,000 acres, unchanged from July but up 4% from 46,381,000 acres in 2014.

Production of spring wheat other than durum was forecast at 620,981,000 bus, up less than 1% from 616,831,000 bus forecast in July and up 4% from 595,038,000 bus a year ago. The average yield was forecast at 47 bus an acre, up 0.3 bu from 46.7 bus in July 2014. Harvested area was forecast at 13,217,000 acres, unchanged from July but up 4% from 12,740,000 acres a year ago.

Production of hard red spring wheat was forecast at 575,977,000 bus, up slightly from July and up 4% from 555,543,000 bus in 2014.

Durum outturn was forecast at 76,780,000 bus, up 2% from 75,540,000 bus in July and up 45% from 53,087,000 bus in 2014. Durum yield was forecast at 40.2 bus an acre, up 0.6 bu from 39.6 bus in July and up 0.5 bus from 39.7 bus an acre in 2014, the U.S.D.A. said. Harvested area was forecast at 1,908,000 acres, unchanged from July but up 43% from 1,337,000 acres a year ago.

The U.S.D.A. estimated winter wheat production at 1,438,278,000 bus, down 1% from 1,455,516,000 in July but up 4% from 1,377,526,000 bus in 2014. Winter wheat yield was estimated at 43.2 bus an acre, down 0.5 bu from 43.7 bus in July but up 0.6 bu from 42.6 bus an acre last year. Harvested area was estimated at 33,329,000 acres, unchanged from July but up 3% from 32,304,000 acres a year ago.

Hard red winter wheat production was estimated at 856,000,000 bus, down 1% from July but up 16% from 737,937,000 bus in 2014.

Soft red winter production was estimated at 388,910,000 bus, down 1% from July and down 15% from 455,297,000 bus in 2014.

Soft white winter wheat outturn was estimated at 180,877,000 bus, up 5% from 172,802,000 bus in 2014. Hard white outturn was estimated at 12,491,000 bus, up 9% from 11,490,000 bus last year.

The U.S.D.A. forecast 2015 U.S. rice production at 205,030,000 cwts, down 7% from 221,035,000 cwts in 2014. Sorghum production was forecast at 572,658,000 bus, up 32% from 432,575,000 bus in 2014. The peanut crop was forecast at 6,181 million lbs, up 19% from 5,210 million lbs in 2014. Cotton production was forecast at 13,082,000 bales, down 20% from last year, with cottonseed at 4,198,000 tons, down 18%. Oats output in 2015 was forecast at 85,456,000 bus, up 2% from July and up 23% from 69,684,000 bus in 2014. Barley production was forecast at 209,690,000 bus, up 1% from July and up 19% from 176,794,000 bus last year.
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