U.S. sugar carryover up for this year and next

by Ron Sterk
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The U.S.D.A.  forecast U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2015, at 1,821,000 short tons, raw value, up 92,000 tons, or 5%, from 1,729,000 tons forecast in July.

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on Aug. 12 forecast U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2015, at 1,821,000 short tons, raw value, up 92,000 tons, or 5%, from 1,729,000 tons forecast in July. The carryover on Oct. 1, 2016, was projected at 1,780,000 tons, up 132,000 tons, or 8%, from July but down 41,000 tons, or 2%, from 2015.

The 2014-15 ending stocks-to-use ratio was forecast at 15.1%, up from 14.3% as the July forecast. The 2015-16 ending stocks-to-use ratio was projected at 14.6%, up from 13.5% projected in July and above the required minimum of 13.5% outlined in the suspension trade agreement between the United States and Mexico.

Higher carryover for 2014-15 was the result of a 54,000-ton increase in domestic sugar production, forecast at 8,614,000 tons, and a 38,000-ton increase in imports, forecast at 3,482,000 tons.

“Beet sugar for the 2015-16 August-July crop year is forecast at 5.136 million tons, an increase of 45,000 based on NASS’s sugar beet crop forecast and an upward revision to projected sucrose content to 17.5% based on processors’ reports,” the U.S.D.A. said. “National yield is forecast at a record 29.9 tons per acre. Due to an early start to the (beet) harvest, the entire increase in sugar is expected in August and September adding a net 45,000 tons to 2014-15 production.”

Forecast 2014-15 imports from Mexico were unchanged from July at 1,426,000 tons, while the projection for 2015-16 was lowered 1,000 tons to 1,548,000 tons.

For 2015-16, domestic sugar production was raised 35,000 tons to 8,800,000 tons, with all of the increase coming from Florida cane sugar production. Imports were raised slightly with total supply up 132,000 tons from July.

Sugar use forecasts were unchanged for both 2014-15 and 2015-16.

For Mexico, the only changes were in forecast domestic sugar use for this year and next year, which in turn lowered ending stocks. Domestic use in 2014-15 was forecast at 4,764,000 tonnes, actual weight, up 4% from July, and use in 2015-16 was projected at 4,825,000 tonnes, also up 4%. Ending stocks for the current year were lowered 18.5% to 837,000 tonnes, and for next year by 31.5% to 833,000 tonnes.
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