U.S. 2016 sugar carryover down 11% from November

by Ron Sterk
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Imports from Mexico lowered 13% from last month.

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on Dec. 9 forecast U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2016, at 1,659,000 short tons, raw value, down 196,000 tons, or 10.6%, from November and down 108,000 tons, or 6%, from 1,767,000 tons on Oct. 1, 2015, which was unchanged from November. The U.S.D.A. raised projected 2015-16 U.S. production and consumption from November but lowered imports from Mexico.

The 2015-16 ending stocks-to-use ratio was lowered from 15.3% in November to 13.5%, the minimum required in the countervailing duty suspension agreements between the United States and Mexico. The 2014-15 ending stocks-to-use ratio was unchanged from November at 14.4%.

For 2015-16, U.S. beet sugar production was forecast at 5,158,000 tons, up 83,000 tons, or 1.6%, from November. Cane sugar production was forecast at 3,833,000 tons, up 98,000 tons, or 2.6%, from November as an increase of 133,000 tons for Florida more than offset a decrease of 35,000 tons for Louisiana.

U.S. sugar imports from Mexico were forecast at 1,333,000 tons, down 207,000 tons, or 13.4%, from November and down 199,000 tons, or 13%, from 1,532,000 tons in 2014-15. U.S. sugar deliveries for food were projected at 11,955,000 tons in 2015-16, up 170,000 tons, or 1.4%, from November and up 25,000 tons from 11,930,000 tons a year earlier.

For Mexico, 2015-16 beginning stocks, imports and production were unchanged from November. Exports were forecast at 1,150,000 tonnes, actual weight, down 178,000 tonnes, or 13.4%, from November and down 292,000 tonnes, or 20.2%, from 1,442,000 tonnes in 2014-15. Domestic use was forecast at 4,725,000 tonnes, up 13,000 tonnes from last year. Ending stocks were forecast at 1,147,000 tonnes, up 165,000 tonnes, or 16.8%, from November. Mexico’s 2014-15 ending stocks were unchanged from November at 811,000 tonnes.
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