U.S. 2017 sugar carryover down 2% from March

by Ron Sterk
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Sugar carryover
 The U.S.D.A. forecasts U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2017, at 1,642,000 short tons, raw value.

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its April 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report forecasts U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2017, at 1,642,000 short tons, raw value, down 35,000 tons, or 2%, from its March projection and down 412,000 tons, or 20%, from 2,054,000 tons on Oct. 1, 2016.

The 2016-17 ending stocks-to-use ratio was revised to 13.3% from 13.6% in March and compared with 17% in 2015-16.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2016-17 U.S. beet sugar production at 4,996,000 tons, down 110,000 tons, or 2%, from March. Cane sugar production was forecast at 3,844,000 tons, down 24,871 tons, or 0.6%.

The lower beet sugar forecast was based on projected sucrose recovery for the season at 13.8%, down from 13.9% in March, and on losses of 7% for the season in piled beets, up from 5.8% in March, the U.S.D.A. said. The lower cane sugar forecast was the result of expected lower sucrose recovery in Florida and Texas.

Total imports in 2016-17 were forecast at 3,128,000 tons, up 150,000 tons, or 5%, from March but down 6% from last year. Tariff-rate quota imports were unchanged from March at 1,576,000 tons, and imports from Mexico were unchanged at 1,162,000 tons. Re-export imports were increased by 150,000 tons, or 67%, to 375,000 tons “based on a survey of license holders’ intensions,” the U.S.D.A. said.

Domestic deliveries of sugar in 2016-17 were unchanged at 12,255,000 tons, including for food at 12,100,000 tons. Exports were raised 50,000 tons from March to 125,000 tons.

There were no changes to 2015-16 estimates for the United States or Mexico.

Mexico’s 2016-17 sugar production was forecast at 6,186,000 tonnes, actual weight, down 184,677 tonnes, or 3%, from March “in agreement with the new estimate made by the CONADESUCA in Mexico,” the U.S.D.A. said.

Deliveries in Mexico for human consumption were increased by 72,627 tonnes to 4,461,000 tonnes, with imports for consumption increased by 15,000 tonnes to 25,000 tonnes, reflecting “adjustments based on observed production, deliveries and imports made through the end of February,” the U.S.D.A. said. Total domestic use was forecast at 4,841,000 tonnes, up 72,000 tonnes, or 1.5%, from March.

Exports from Mexico to the United States were unchanged from March at 994,502 tonnes, but total exports were lowered by 257,435 tonnes to 1,163,000 tonnes “as residually determined shipments to third countries are lowered,” the U.S.D.A. said.

Ending stocks in Mexico were forecast at 1,293,000 tonnes, up 15,000 tonnes, or 1%, from March and up 256,000 tonnes, or 25%, from 1,037,000 tonnes in 2015-16.
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