2018 wheat carryover unchanged but with adjustment by class

by Jay Sjerven
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Wheat carryover
The U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2018, at 933 million bus.
 

WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2018, at 933 million bus, unchanged from the August report but down 251 million bus, or 21%, from 1,184 million bus in 2017. All all-wheat supply-and-demand forecasts for 2017-18 were unchanged from August, but there were adjustments made to the balance sheets by class.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of hard red winter wheat on June 1, 2018, at 463 million bus, up 10 million bus from the August projection but down 22% from 593 million bus in 2017. The increase in the carryover forecast from August reflected a 10-million-bu decrease in forecast exports for 2017-18 to 400 million bus, which compared with 455 million bus as the export total for 2016-17.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of hard red spring wheat on June 1, 2018, at 146 million bus, up 15 million from the August projection but down 38% from 235 million bus in 2017. Spring wheat imports in 2017-18 were forecast at 73 million bus, up 5 million bus from the August projection and compared with 42 million bus in 2016-17. Meanwhile, the U.S.D.A. forecast hard red spring wheat exports in 2017-18 at 260 million bus, down 10 million from the August projection and down 19% from 321 million bus in 2016-17.

The U.S.D.A. raised its forecast for the carryover of durum on June 1, 2018, to 24 million bus, up 2 million bus from the August outlook but down 33% from 36 million bus in 2017. The upward adjustment from August reflected a 2-million-bu increase in forecast imports to 45 million bus. Last year, the United States imported 30 million bus of durum.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of soft red winter wheat on June 1, 2018, at 229 million bus, down 7 million bus from the August projection but up 14 million bus from 215 million bus in 2017. The downward adjustment from August reflected a lower 2017-18 import forecast at 15 million bus compared with 33 million bus in 2016-17.

The carryover of white wheat on June 1, 2018, was forecast at 70 million bus, down 20 million bus from the August projection and down 33% from 105 million bus in 2017. The downward adjustment from August reflected a 20-million-bu increase in the 2017-18 export forecast to 205 million bus. In 2016-17, white winter wheat exports aggregated 163 million bus.

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