U.S.D.A. lowers corn carryover, raises soybean forecast

by Ron Sterk
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Corn and soybeans
The U.S.D.A forecast U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2018 at 2,352 million bus and U.S. soybean carryover at 530 million bus.
 

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its Feb. 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, forecast U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2018, at 2,352 million bus, down 125 million bus, or 5%, from its January forecast but up 59 million bus, or 2.6%, from 2,293 million bus in 2017. The change was based on a 125-million-bu increase in 2017-18 U.S. corn exports, forecast at 2,050 million bus, “reflecting U.S. price competitiveness and reduced exports for Argentina and Ukraine,” the U.S.D.A. said.

All other 2017-18 corn supply and use forecasts were unchanged from January. The average price of corn paid to farmers was forecast at $3.05 to $3.55 a bu, compared with $2.95 to $3.55 a bu forecast in January and $3.36 a bu in 2016-17.

The U.S.D.A. forecast U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2018, at 530 million bus, up 60 million bus, or 13%, from its January forecast and up 228 million bus, or 75%, from 302 million bus in 2017. The change was based on a 60-million-bu decrease in 2017-18 soybean exports, forecast at 2,100 million bus, based on shipments and sales through January and increased competition from Brazil, the U.S.D.A. said.

All other 2017-18 soybean supply and use forecasts were unchanged from January. The average price of soybeans paid to farmers was forecast at $8.90 to $9.70 a bu, compared with $8.80 to $9.80 a bu forecast in January and $9.47 a bu in 2016-17.
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