U.S.D.A. projects 2008 wheat, corn carryover up

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — In its first projections for the 2007-08 marketing year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast carryover for wheat and corn larger than the previous year but sharply lower for soybeans. The U.S.D.A. projections were below average pre-report trade expectations for all three crops, however.

Wheat carryover on June 1, 2008, was projected at 469 million bus, up 14% from 2007. The carryover on June 1, 2007, was forecast at 412 million bus, down 10 million bus from the April forecast. Total wheat production for 2007-08 was projected at 2,174 million bus, up 20% from 1,812 million bus a year earlier.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2008, was projected at 947 million bus, up only 10 million bus, or 1%, from 937 million a year earlier. Corn production for 2007-08 was projected at 12,460 million bus, up 18% from 2006-07. Total use was projected at 12,465 million bus, up 890 million bus, or 8%, from 11,575 million bus in 2006-07. Projected corn use for ethanol was 3,400 million bus for 2007-08, up 58% from 2,150 million bus in the current year.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2008, was projected at 320 million bus, down 290 million bus, or 48%, from 610 million bus the previous year. Soybean production was projected at 2,745 million bus, down 443 million bus, or 14%, from 2006-07, mainly due to reduced plantings as farmers switch acres to corn.

Soybean oil carryover on Oct. 1, 2008, was projected at 2,179 million lbs, down 775 million lbs, or 26%, from 2,954 million lbs the previous year. Use of soybean oil for the production of biodiesel was projected at 3,800 million lbs, up 49% from 2006-07 and equal to 19% of total soybean oil production for 2007-08. Soybean meal carryover on Oct. 1, 2008, was projected at 300,000 tons, unchanged from 2007.

Sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2008, was projected at 1,340,000 tons, raw value, down 376,000 tons, or 22%, from 1,716,000 tons in 2007. Sugar production for 2007-08 was projected at 8,255,000 tons, down 3% from the current year, while imports were projected at 1,789,000 tons, down 12%. Domestic deliveries were projected at 10,000,000 tons, up slightly from 9,950,000 tons in 2006-07.

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