U.S.D.A. reduces 2008 wheat, soybean carryover

by FoodBusinessNews.net Staff
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture today projected carryover of wheat on June 1, 2008, at 362 million bus, down 42 million bus from its August projection, down 94 million bus from 2007 and the smallest since 1974. Click here to read report.

Total wheat supply in 2007-08 was projected at 2,655 million bus, down 15 million bus from August but up 150 million bus from 2006-07. Production in 2007 was estimated at 2,114 million bus, unchanged from August and up 302 million bus from last year. Imports in 2007-08 were forecast at 85 million bus, down 15 million bus from August and down 37 million bus from 2006-07.

Total wheat disappearance in 2007-08 was projected at 2,293 million bus, up 27 million bus from August and up 244 million bus from 2006-07. Food use of wheat in 2007-08 was projected at 940 million bus, up 10 million bus from August and from the previous year. Seed use of wheat was projected at 83 million bus, up 2 million bus from August and from 2006-07. Feed and residual use of wheat in 2007-08 was projected at 170 million bus, down 10 million bus from August but up 41 million bus from 2006-07. Exports in 2007-08 were projected at 1,100 million bus, up 25 million bus from August and up 191 million bus from 2006-07. The average farm price of wheat in 2007-08 was projected at $5.50@6.10 a bu, up 40c from August and compared with $4.26 in 2006-07 and $3.42 in 2005-06.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2007-08 world wheat ending stocks at 112.36 million tonnes, down 2.42 million tonnes from its August forecast and down 12.72 million tonnes from the previous year. It would be the smallest world ending stocks in 30 years. World wheat ending stock-to-use ratio was 18%, tightest in records extending to 1960-61.

World wheat production was estimated at 606.24 million tonnes, down 4.16 million tonnes from August but up 13.17 million tonnes from 2006-07. Decreases in 2007-08 production estimates for Australia, Canada and the European Union more than offset an increase for the former Soviet Union. World wheat imports were projected at 104.11 million tonnes, down 1.81 million tonnes from August and down 6.53 million tonnes from 2006-07. World wheat use was projected at 618.96 million tonnes, down 1.55 million tonnes from August but up 1.81 million tonnes from 2006-07.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2008, was projected at 1,675 million bus, up 159 million bus from the U.S.D.A.’s August forecast and up 533 million bus from 2007. Corn production for 2007 was projected at a record 13,308 million bus, up 254 million bus from August and up 2,773 million bus from 2006. Total corn supply for 2007-08 was projected record large at 14,465 million bus, up 259 million bus from August and up 1,953 million bus from the previous year. Feed and residual use increased 100 million bus from August, to 5,850 million bus. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 4,690 million bus, down 100 million from August because of a 100-million-bu reduction in projected use of corn to make ethanol. Exports were projected at 2,250 million bus, up 100 million bus from August and up 130 million bus from 2006-07. Total use was projected at 12,790 million bus for 2007-08, up 100 million bus from August and up 1,420 million bus from 2006-07.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2008, was projected at 215 million bus, down 5 million bus from August and down 340 million bus from 2007. Soybean production for 2007 was projected at 2,619 million bus, down 6 million bus from August and down 569 million bus from the record large 2006 crop. Total soybean supply for 2007-08 was projected at 3,180 million bus, down 25 million bus from August. Total use was projected at 2,964 million bus, down 21 million bus from August. Soybean crushings were projected at 1,825 million bus for 2007-08, up 25 million bus from August. Exports were projected at 975 million bus, down 45 million bus from August and down 140 million bus from 2006-07.

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