U.S. carryover of wheat reduced, corn raised

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture today projected carryover of wheat on June 1, 2008, at 307 million bus, down 55 million bus from its September projection, down 149 million bus from 2007 and the smallest since 1948-49.

Total wheat supply in 2007-08 was projected at 2,608 million bus, down 47 million bus from September but up 103 million bus from 2006-07. Production in 2007 was estimated at 2,067 million bus, down 47 million bus from September but up 255 million bus from last year. Imports in 2007-08 were forecast at 85 million bus, unchanged from September but down 37 million bus from 2006-07.

Total wheat disappearance in 2007-08 was projected at 2,301 million bus, up 8 million bus from September and up 252 million bus from 2006-07. Food use of wheat in 2007-08 was projected at 940 million bus, unchanged from September but up 6 million bus from the previous year. Seed use of wheat was projected at 86 million bus, up 3 million bus from September and up 5 million bus from 2006-07. Feed and residual use of wheat in 2007-08 was projected at 125 million bus, down 45 million bus from September but unchanged from 2006-07. Exports in 2007-08 were projected at 1,150 million bus, up 50 million bus from September and up 241 million bus from 2006-07. The average farm price of wheat in 2007-08 was projected at $5.80@6.40 a bu, up 30c from September and compared with $4.26 in 2006-07 and $3.42 in 2005-06.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2007-08 world wheat ending stocks at 106.97 million tonnes, down 5.39 million tonnes from its September forecast, and down 15.75 million tonnes from previous year and the smallest since 1975-76.

World wheat production was estimated at 600.47 million tonnes, down 5.77 million tonnes from September but up 7.39 million tonnes from 2006-07. Australian wheat production for 2007-08 was lowered to 13.5 million tonnes from 21 million tonnes in September. World wheat use was projected at 616.22 million tonnes, down 2.74 million tonnes from September and down 1.77 million tonnes from 2006-07.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2008, was projected at 1,997 million bus, up 322 million bus from the U.S.D.A.’s September forecast and up 693 million bus from 2007. Corn production for 2007 was projected at a record 13,318 million bus, up 10 million bus from September and up 2,783 million bus from 2006. Total corn supply for 2007-08 was projected record large at 14,637 million bus, up 172 million bus from September and up 2,123 million bus from the previous year. Feed and residual use was reduced 150 million bus from September, to 5,700 million bus. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 4,590 million bus, down 100 million bus from September due to a 100 million bus reduction is corn use for ethanol, projected at 3,200 million bus. Exports were projected at 2,350 million bus, up 100 million bus from September and up 225 million bus from 2006-07. Total use was projected at 12,640 million bus for 2007-08, down 150 million bus from September but up 1,430 million bus from 2006-07.

The average farm price of corn in 2007-08 was projected at $2.90@3.50 a bu, up 10c from September and compared with $3.04 in 2006-07 and $2 in 2005-06.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2008, was projected at 215 million bus, unchanged from September but down 358 million bus from 2007. Soybean production for 2007 was projected at 2,598 million bus, down 21 million bus from September and down 590 million bus from the record large 2006 crop. Total soybean supply for 2007-08 was projected at 3,177 million bus, down 3 million bus from September. Total use was projected at 2,962 million bus, down 2 million bus from September. Soybean crushings were projected at 1,825 million bus for 2007-08, unchanged from September but up 19 million bus from 2006-07. Exports were projected at 975 million bus, also unchanged from September but down 143 million bus from 2006-07.

The average farm price of soybeans in 2007-08 was projected at $7.85@8.85 a bu, up 50c from September and compared with $6.43 in 2006-07 and $5.66 in 2005-06.

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