Carryover of wheat raised; corn, soybeans reduced

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture today projected carryover of wheat on June 1, 2008, at 312 million bus, up 5 million bus from its October projection but down 144 million bus from 456 million bus in 2007.

Total wheat supply in 2007-08 was projected at 2,613 million bus, up 5 million bus from October and up 108 million bus from 2006-07. Production in 2007 was estimated at 2,067 million bus, unchanged from October but up 255 million bus from last year. Imports in 2007-08 were forecast at 90 million bus, up 5 million bus from October "reflecting the strong pace of hard red spring wheat shipments from Canada," the U.S.D.A. said. Imports were down 32 million bus from 2006-07.

Total wheat disappearance in 2007-08 was projected at 2,301 million bus, unchanged from October but up 252 million bus from 2006-07. Food use of wheat in 2007-08 was projected at 940 million bus, unchanged from October but up 6 million bus from the previous year. Seed use of wheat was projected at 86 million bus, unchanged from October but up 5 million bus from 2006-07. Feed and residual use of wheat in 2007-08 was projected at 125 million bus, unchanged from both October and last year. Exports in 2007-08 were projected at 1,150 million bus, unchanged from October but up 241 million bus from 2006-07. The average farm price of wheat in 2007-08 was projected at $5.90@6.30 a bu, narrowed by 10c on each end from October and compared with $4.26 in 2006-07 and $3.42 in 2005-06.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2007-08 world wheat ending stocks at 109.8 million tonnes, up 2.83 million tonnes from its October forecast, but down 17.09 million tonnes from the previous year and remains the lowest in 30 years, the U.S.D.A. said.

World wheat production was estimated at 603.3 million tonnes, up 2.83 million tonnes from October and up 9.69 million tonnes from 2006-07. Australian wheat production for 2007-08 was lowered to 13 million tonnes from 13.5 million tonnes in October and 21 million tonnes in September. World wheat use was projected at 617.56 million tonnes, up 1.34 million tonnes from October and up 0.37 million tonnes from 2006-07.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2008, was projected at 1,897 million bus, down 100 million bus from the U.S.D.A.’s October forecast but up 593 million bus from 2007. Corn production for 2007 was projected at a record 13,168 million bus, down 150 million bus from October but up 2,633 million bus from 2006. Total corn supply for 2007-08 was projected at 14,487 million bus, down 150 million bus from October but up 1,973 million bus from the previous year. Feed and residual use was reduced 50 million bus from October, to 5,650 million bus. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 4,590 million bus, unchanged from October but up 52 million bus from last year. Projected use of corn for ethanol was unchanged from October at 3,200 million bus but up 1,083 million bus from 2006-07. Exports were projected at 2,350 million bus, unchanged from October but up 225 million bus from 2006-07. Total use was projected at 12,590 million bus for 2007-08, down 50 million bus from October but up 1,380 million bus from 2006-07.

The average farm price of corn in 2007-08 was projected at $3.20@3.80 a bu, up 30c from October and compared with $3.04 in 2006-07 and $2 in 2005-06.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2008, was projected at 210 million bus, down 5 million bus from October and down 363 million bus from 2007. Soybean production for 2007 was projected at 2,594 million bus, down 5 million bus from October and down 594 million bus from the record large 2006 crop. Total soybean supply for 2007-08 was projected at 3,173 million bus, down 4 million bus from October. Total use was projected at 2,963 million bus, up 1 million bus from October. Soybean crushings were projected at 1,825 million bus for 2007-08, unchanged from October but up 19 million bus from 2006-07. Exports were projected at 975 million bus, also unchanged from October but down 143 million bus from 2006-07. Seed use was projected at 86 million bus, up 1 million bus from October and up 8 million bus from last year.

The average farm price of soybeans in 2007-08 was projected at $8.50@9.50 a bu, up 60c from October and compared with $6.43 in 2006-07 and $5.66 in 2005-06.

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