U.S. carryover of wheat, corn and soybeans reduced

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture today projected carryover of wheat on June 1, 2008, at 280 million bus, down 32 million bus from its November projection of 312 million bus, down 176 million bus from 456 million bus in 2007 and the smallest in 60 years.

Along with wheat, projected carryover of corn and soybeans also was reduced from November, with all three numbers below pre-report trade expectations. Projected 2007-08 exports and prices were increased from November for all three commodities, with corn exports and the average wheat price at record highs.

Total wheat supply in 2007-08 was projected at 2,613 million bus, unchanged from November but up 108 million bus from 2006-07. Production in 2007 was estimated at 2,067 million bus, up 255 million bus from last year and imports in 2007-08 at 90 million bus, down 32 million bus from last year. Both numbers were unchanged from November.

Total wheat disappearance in 2007-08 was projected at 2,333 million bus, up 32 million bus from November and up 284 million bus from 2006-07. Food use of wheat in 2007-08 was projected at 945 million bus, up 5 million bus from November and up 12 million bus from the previous year. Seed use of wheat was projected at 88 million bus, up 2 million bus from November and up 7 million bus from 2006-07. Feed and residual use of wheat in 2007-08 was projected at 125 million bus, unchanged from both November and last year. Wheat exports in 2007-08 were projected at 1,175 million bus, up 25 million bus from November and up 266 million bus from 2006-07.

The average farm price of wheat in 2007-08 was projected at $6.20@6.60 a bu, up 30c on each end from November and compared with $4.26 in 2006-07, $3.42 in 2005-06 and well above the record $4.55 in 1995-96, the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S.D.A. projected 2007-08 world wheat ending stocks at 110.06 million tonnes, up 0.26 million tonnes from its November forecast, but down 14.24 million tonnes from previous year.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2008, was projected at 1,797 million bus, down 100 million bus from the U.S.D.A.’s November forecast but up 493 million bus from 2007. Corn production for 2007 was unchanged from November at a record 13,168 million bus, which was up 2,633 million bus from 2006. Total corn supply for 2007-08 was projected at 14,487 million bus, unchanged from November but up 1,973 million bus from 2006-07.

Feed and residual use for the current year was projected at 5,650 million bus, food, seed and industrial use at 4,590 million bus, both unchanged from November. Projected use of corn for ethanol also was unchanged from November at 3,200 million bus. Exports for 2007-08 were projected at a record 2,450 million bus, up 100 million bus from November and up 325 million bus from 2006-07. Total use of corn was projected at 12,690 million bus for 2007-08, up 100 million bus from November and up 1,480 million bus from 2006-07.

The average farm price of corn in 2007-08 was projected at $3.35@3.95 a bu, up 15c from November and compared with $3.04 in 2006-07 and $2 in 2005-06.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2008, was projected at 185 million bus, down 25 million bus from November and down 388 million bus from 2007. Soybean production for 2007 was projected at 2,594 million bus, unchanged from November but down 594 million bus from the record large 2006 crop. Total soybean supply for 2007-08 was projected at 3,173 million bus, unchanged from November.

Total use was projected at 2,988 million bus, up 25 million bus from November but down 86 million bus from a year earlier. Soybean crushings were projected at 1,830 million bus for 2007-08, up 5 million bus from November and up 24 million bus from 2006-07. Exports were projected at 995 million bus, up 20 million bus from November but down 123 million bus from 2006-07. Seed use was projected at 86 million bus, unchanged from November but up 8 million bus from last year.

The average farm price of soybeans in 2007-08 was projected at $9.25@10.25 a bu, up 75c from November and compared with $6.43 in 2006-07 and $5.66 in 2005-06.

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