U.S. 2010 wheat, soybean carryover raised

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected larger 2010 U.S. carryover stocks of wheat and soybeans but a smaller carryover of corn compared with October projections in its Nov. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. World wheat and soybean carryover also was raised for 2010 while world corn was lowered.

Projected carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2010, was 885 million bus, up 21 million bus, or 2%, from the October projection of 864 million bus, up 228 million bus, or 35%, from 657 million bus in 2009, and a 10-year high.

Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was projected at 270 million bus, up 40 million bus, or 17%, from 230 million bus projected in October and up 132 million bus, or 96%, from 138 million bus in 2009, the U.S.D.A. said.

Projected corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was 1,625 million bus, down 47 million bus, or 3%, from 1,672 million bus projected in October, and 49 million bus, or 3%, under 1,674 million bus in 2009.

The projected 2010 U.S.D.A. carryover numbers for wheat and soybeans were above the averages of pre-report trade estimates, but the corn number was below the average of expectations.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,216 million bus for 2009, down 4 million bus from October based on slightly lower estimates for spring wheat and durum production, and down 283 million bus, or 11%, from 2,499 million bus in 2008. Imports for 2009-10 were unchanged from October at 110 million bus. Total wheat supply in 2009-10 was projected at 2,983 million bus, down 4 million bus from October but up 51 million bus, or 2%, from 2,932 million bus in 2008-09.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2009-10 were projected at 875 million bus, down 25 million bus from October and down 140 million bus, or 14%, from 1,015 million bus in 2008-09. Domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2009-10 was projected at 955 million bus, unchanged from October and up 30 million bus, or 3%, from 2008-09. Feed and residual use was projected at 190 million bus, unchanged from October and down 70 million bus, or 27%, from last year. Seed use was projected at 78 million bus, unchanged from October but up 3 million bus from 2008-09. Total wheat use in 2009-10 was projected at 2,098 million bus, down 25 million bus, or 1%, from October and down 177 million bus, or 8%, from a year earlier.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2009-10 was projected to range from $4.65@5.05 a bu, up 10c on the bottom end of the range but down 10c on the top end from October, and compared with $6.78 in 2008-09 and $6.48 in 2007-08.

Global 2009-10 wheat production was projected at 671.89 million tonnes, up 3.77 million tonnes from October but down 10.86 million tonnes from record large outturn of 682.75 million tonnes in 2008-09. World wheat ending stocks were projected at 188.28 million tonnes in 2009-10, up 1.55 million tonnes from 186.73 million tonnes in October and up 23.54 million tonnes, or 14%, from 164.74 million tonnes in 2008-09.

U.S. soybean production in 2009 was projected at a record high 3,319 million bus, up 2% from 3,250 million bus forecast in October and up 352 million bus, or 12%, from 2,967 million bus in 2008. Imports for 2009-10 were reduced by 2 million bus from October, to 8 million bus. Total 2009-10 U.S. soybean supply was projected at 3,465 million bus, up 67 million bus from 3,398 million bus in October and up 280 million bus, or 9%, from 3,185 million bus in 2008-09.

Domestic soybean crush in 2009-10 was projected at 1,695 million bus, up 5 million bus from October and up 33 million bus from 1,662 million bus in 2008-09. Seed use was unchanged from October at 94 million bus and down 1 million bus from 2008-09. U.S. soybean exports in 2009-10 were projected at 1,325 million bus, up 20 million bus from 1,305 million bus in October and up 42 million bus, or 3%, from 1,283 million bus in 2008-09. Total soybean use was projected at 3,195 million bus, up 26 million bus from October and up 148 million bus, or 5%, from 3,047 million bus last year.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $8.20@10.20 a bus in 2009-10, up 20c on each side of the range from October, and compared with $9.97 in 2008-09 and $10.10 in 2007-08.

Global soybean production in 2009-10 was projected at 250.23 million tonnes, up 4.16 million tonnes, or 2%, from 246.07 million tonnes in October and up 39.39 million tonnes, or 19%, from 210.84 million tonnes in 2008-09. Ending stocks were projected at 57.39 million tonnes in 2009-10, up 2.6 million tonnes, or 5%, from 54.79 million tonnes in October and up 15 million tonnes, or 35%, from 42.39 million tonnes the previous year.

U.S. corn production in 2009 was projected at 12,921 million bus, down 97 million bus, or about 1%, from 13,018 million bus in October, but up 7% from 12,101 million bus in 2008, and the second largest crop on record if realized. Imports in 2009-10 were unchanged from October at 10 million bus. Total corn supply in 2009-10 was projected at 14,605 million bus, also down 97 million bus from 14,702 million bus in October but up 866 million bus, or 6% from 13,739 million bus in 2008-09.

Total domestic corn use in 2009-10 was unchanged from October at 10,880 million bus, but up 673 million bus, or 7%, from 10,207 million bus last year. Included were feed and residual use projected at 5,400 million bus, up 3% from 5,254 million bus in 2008-09, food and seed use at 1,280 million bus, up 4 million bus from last year, and use for ethanol at 4,200 million bus, up 523 million bus, or 14%, from 3,677 million bus in 2008-09. U.S. corn exports in 2009-10 were projected at 2,100 million bus, down 50 million bus, or 2%, from October but up 242 million bus, or 13%, from 1,858 million bus in 2008-09.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $3.25@3.85 a bu in 2009-10, up 20c on each end of the range from October and compared with $4.06 in 2008-09 and $4.20 in 2007-08.

World corn production in 2009-10 was projected at 789.73 million tonnes, down 2.81 million tonnes from 792.54 million tonnes in October and down 2.38 million tonnes from 791.92 million tonnes in 2008-09. Global corn ending stocks were projected at 132.41 million tonnes for 2009-10, down 3.84 million tonnes from 136.25 million tonnes in October and down 13.54 million tonnes, or 9%, from 145.95 million tonnes in 2008-09.

U.S. rice production in 2009 was projected at 218.2 million cwts, down 2.4 million cwts from October but up 14.5 million cwts, or 7%, from 203.7 million cwts in 2008. Carryover of rice on Aug. 1, 2010, was projected at 44.2 million cwts, down 2.4 million cwts from October but up 13.8 million cwts, or 45%, from 30.4 million cwts in 2008-09. The average farm price of rice was projected to range from $13.85@14.85 a cwt, up 85c on both ends of the range from October and compared with $16.80 a cwt in 2008-09 and $12.80 in 2007-08.

World rice production was projected at 432.09 million tonnes, down 1.56 million tonnes from 433.65 million tonnes in October and down 13.68 million tonnes, or 3%, from 445.77 million tonnes in 2008-09. Ending stocks were projected at 85.92 million tonnes, up 20,000 tonnes from 85.9 million tonnes in October but down 5.05 million tonnes, or 6%, from 90.67 million tonnes in 2008-09.

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