U.S.D.A. lowers corn, raises soybean forecasts
November 10, 2009
by Ron Sterk
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its November Crop Production report lowered its forecast of 2009 corn production by 1% from October but raised its soybean forecast by 2%, and in a special report, reduced spring wheat production by 3 million bus, or 0.5%, and reduced durum by 1 million bus, or 1%, from September.
Corn production in 2009 was forecast at 12,921 million bus, down 97 million bus, or about 1%, from 13,018 million bus forecast in October, but up 7% from 12,101 million bus last year, and the second largest ever behind the 2007 crop. Corn yield based on Nov. 1 conditions was forecast to average 162.9 bus an acre, down 1.3 bus from last month, but up 9 bus from last year and the highest on record if realized, the U.S.D.A. said. Harvest area was forecast at 79.3 million acres, unchanged from October but up 1% from 2008.
The 2009 soybean crop was forecast at 3,319 million bus, up 69 million bus, or 2%, from 3,250 million bus forecast in October, up 12% from 2,967 million bus in 2008 and the largest on record. The average soybean yield based on Nov. 1 conditions was forecast at 43.3 bus an acre, up 0.9 bus from October, up 3.6 bus from last year and the highest on record if realized, the U.S.D.A. said. Area for harvest was forecast at 76.6 million acres, unchanged from October but up 3% from 2008.
The U.S.D.A. corn forecast was below the average of analysts’ pre-report estimates while the soybean forecast was above the average of estimates.
Because of the delayed harvest in the Upper Midwest, the U.S.D.A. conducted a late October survey of growers in Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming to adjust spring wheat, durum, barley and oats estimates.
Hard red spring wheat production was forecast at 547,933,000 bus, down 2,950,000 bus, or 0.5%, from the U.S.D.A.’s Sept. 30 Small Grains Summary. Durum outturn for 2009 was forecast at 109,042,000 bus, down 1,035,000 bus, or 1%, from September.