2010 wheat, corn carryover down from November
December 10, 2009
by Ron Sterk
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected larger 2010 U.S. carryover stocks of wheat and corn but a smaller carryover of soybeans compared with November projections in its Dec. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. World wheat carryover for 2010 was raised from November while corn and soybean carryover projections were lowered.
The projected 2010 U.S.D.A. carryover numbers for wheat, corn and soybeans were above the averages of pre-report trade estimates.
Projected carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2010, was 900 million bus, up 15 million bus, or 2%, from the November projection of 885 million bus and up 243 million bus, or 37%, from 657 million bus in 2009.
U.S. 2009-10 wheat supply and demand forecasts were unchanged from November except food use, which was reduced to 940 million bus and compared with 927 million bus a year earlier.
“Food use is projected 15 million bus lower based on the latest mill-grind data from the U.S. Census Bureau and indications of 2009-crop quality that suggest higher-than-normal flour extraction rates again in 2009-10,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Higher flour extraction rates reduce the quantity of wheat needed for milling. Food use for 2008-09 is estimated 1 million bus higher based on the latest revisions to mill-grind data.”
Unchanged from November were U.S. all wheat production at 2,216 million bus in 2009, imports for 2009-10 at 110 million bus, total supply at 2,983 million bus, feed and residual use at 190 million bus, exports at 875 million bus and average farm price at $firstname.lastname@example.org a bu. Total use in 2009-10 was reduced 15 million bus, to 2,083 million bus, based on the lower food use number.
Global 2009-10 wheat production was projected at 673.86 million tonnes, up 1.97 million tonnes from November but down 8.17 million tonnes from record large outturn of 682.02 million tonnes in 2008-09. World wheat ending stocks were projected at 190.91 million tonnes in 2009-10, up 2.63 million tonnes from 188.28 million tonnes in November and up 27.16 million tonnes, or 17%, from 163.75 million tonnes in 2008-09.
An increase of 2.5 million tonnes in 2009 Canadian wheat production and small gains in Italy and Belarus more than offset a 1-million-tonne reduction in Australia, the U.S.D.A. said.
U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was projected at 255 million bus, down 15 million bus, or 6%, from 270 million bus projected in November but up 117 million bus, or 85%, from 138 million bus in 2009, the U.S.D.A. said.
Soybean exports were projected at 1,340 million bus in 2009-10, up 1% from November and compared with 1,283 million bus in 2008-09.
“Soybean exports are increased 15 million bus, reflecting the record export pace in recent weeks and higher projected soybean imports by China,” the U.S.D.A. said. “U.S. export commitments were record high through November, up almost 60% from a year ago.”
Unchanged from November were 2009 U.S. soybean production at a record high 3,319 million bus, imports at 8 million bus, total supply at 3,465 million bus and domestic crush at 1,695 million bus. Total use was raised 15 million bus, to 3,210 million bus, based on increased exports.
The average farm price of soybeans was raised $email@example.com from $firstname.lastname@example.org in November and compared with $9.97 in 2008-09 and $10.10 in 2007-08.
Global soybean production in 2009-10 was projected at 250.25 million tonnes, up slightly from 250.23 million tonnes in November and up 39.38 million tonnes, or 19%, from 210.87 million tonnes in 2008-09. Ending stocks were projected at 57.09 million tonnes in 2009-10, down 300,000 tonnes from 57.39 million tonnes in November but up 14.68 million tonnes, or 35%, from 42.41 million tonnes the previous year.
Projected U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was 1,675 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 3%, from 1,625 million bus projected in November, and nearly even with 1,674 million bus in 2009.
“Corn exports are lowered 50 million bus based on the slow pace of shipments to date and increased competition from larger supplies in Ukraine,” the U.S.D.A. said. U.S. exports were projected at 2,050 million bus in 2009-10 compared with 2,100 million bus projected in November and 1,858 million bus in 2008-09.
Unchanged were 2009 U.S. corn production at 12,921 million bus, 2009-10 imports at 10 million bus, total supply at 14,605 million bus, feed and residual use at 5,400 million bus and food, seed and industrial use at 5,480 million bus (including 1,280 million bus for food and seed and 4,200 million bus for ethanol). The projected 2009-10 average farm price of corn also was unchanged from November at $email@example.com a bu and compared with $4.06 in 2008-09 and $4.20 in 2007-08. Total use of corn in 2009-10 was projected at 12,930 million bus, down 50 million bus from November based on reduced exports.
World corn production in 2009-10 was projected at 790.17 million tonnes, up 440,000 tonnes from 789.73 million tonnes in November but down 1.46 million tonnes from 791.63 million tonnes in 2008-09. Global corn ending stocks were projected at 132.34 million tonnes for 2009-10, down 70,000 tonnes from 132.41 million tonnes in November and down 13.1 million tonnes, or 9%, from 145.44 million tonnes in 2008-09.