Wheat carryover forecast to be largest since 1988

by Jay Sjerven
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WASHINGTON — The Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Jan. 12 projected the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2010, in the United States at 976 million bus, up 76 million bus from the December forecast and up 49% from 657 million bus in 2009. It would be the nation’s largest June 1 wheat inventory since 1,261 million bus in 1988.

The department’s wheat supply forecasts for 2009-10 were unchanged from December. Wheat production in 2009 was estimated at 2,216 million bus, down 11% from 2,499 million bus in 2008. Imports in 2009-10 were projected at 110 million bus, down 17 million bus from 2008-09. Total wheat supply in 2009-10 was projected at 2,983 million bus, up 51 million from the previous year.

Domestic wheat disappearance was projected at 1,182 million bus, down 26 million bus from the December forecast and down 78 million bus from 1,260 million bus in 2008-09. Food use of wheat was projected unchanged at 940 million bus, up 13 million bus from 2008-09. Feed and residual use of wheat was projected at 170 million bus, down 20 million bus from December and down 88 million bus from the previous year. Seed use of wheat in 2009-10 was projected at 72 million bus, down 6 million bus from the December forecast and down 3 million bus from 2008-09.

Exports of U.S. wheat in 2009-10 were projected at 825 million bus, down 50 million bus from the December forecast and down 19% from 1,015 million bus in 2008-09. It would be lowest wheat outgo since 1971-72.

The U.S.D.A. projected the average farm price of wheat in 2009-10 at $4.70@5 a bu, up 5c from the bottom end of December price range and down 5c from the top end, and compared with $6.78 a bu in 2008-09 and $6.48 in 2007-08.

The hard winter wheat carryover in 2010 was projected at 431 million bus, up 47 million bus from the December forecast and up 70% from 254 million bus in 2009. The hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 267 million bus, up 10 million bus from December and up 88% from 142 million bus in 2009.

The soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 196 million bus, up 19 million bus from December and up 15% from 171 million bus in 2009. The white wheat carryover was projected at 42 million bus, unchanged from December and down 34% from 64 million bus in 2009. The durum carryover was projected at 40 million bus, unchanged from December and up 60% from 25 million bus in 2009.

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