U.S. 2011 wheat carryover down 5% from September

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON –U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 853 million bus, down 49 million bus, or 5%, from 902 million bus forecast in September and down 123 million bus, or 13%, from 976 million bus in 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Oct. 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,224 million bus for 2010-11, down 41 million bus, or 2%, from September but up 6 million bus from 2,218 million bus a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,299 million bus, down 39 million bus, or 1%, from September but up 306 million bus, or 10%, from 2,993 million bus in 2009-10, the U.S.D.A. said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2010-11 were projected at 1,250 million bus, unchanged from September but up 369 million bus, or 42%, from 881 million bus in 2009-10.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 at 940 million bus, unchanged from September but up 23 million bus, or 3%, from 917 million bus in 2009-10, and seed use at 76 million bus, also unchanged from September but up 7 million bus from 69 million bus last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 180 million bus, up 10 million bus, or 6%, from September and up 30 million bus, or 20%, from 150 million bus in 2009-10. Total use was projected at 2,446 million bus, up 10 million from September and up 428 million bus, or 21%, from 2,018 million bus in 2009-10.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 was projected to fall in a range of $5.20@5.80 a bus, up from $4.95@5.65 in September and compared with $4.87 a bu in 2009-10 and $6.78 a bu in 2008-09.

On a by-class basis, the U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2011, carryover of hard winter wheat at 338 million bus, down 11 million bus from September and down 47 million bus from 385 million bus in 2010. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 158 million bus, down 21 million bus from September and down 84 million bus, or 35%, from 242 million bus in 2010.

Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 232 million bus, down 17 million bus from September and down 2 million bus from 2010.

White wheat carryover was projected at 88 million bus in 2011, up 2 million bus from September and up 8 million bus from 80 million bus in 2010.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 37 million bus, down 2 million bus from September but up 2 million bus from 2010.

Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 641.44 million tonnes, down 1.57 million tonnes from September and down 40.71 million tonnes, or 6%, from 682.15 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 663.31 million tonnes, up 2.12 million tonnes from September and up 12.35 million tonnes, or 2%, from 650.96 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 126.23 million tonnes, up 200,000 tonnes from 126.03 million tonnes in September but down 9.09 million tonnes, or 7%, from 135.32 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 174.66 million tonnes, down 3.13 million tonnes from September and down 21.87 million tonnes, or 11%, from 196.53 million tonnes in 2009-10.

“Global wheat supplies for 2010-11 are projected 1 million tonnes lower mostly reflecting lower production in the United States,” the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 902 million bus, down 214 million bus, or 19%, from 1,116 million bus in September and down 806 million bus, or 47%, from an upwardly revised 1,708 million bus in 2010.

Corn production in 2010 was projected at 12,664 million bus, down 4% from September and down 446 million bus, or 3%, from 13,110 million bus in 2009. Total supply for 2010-11 was projected at 14,382 million bus, down 174 million bus, or 1%, from 14,556 million bus in September and down 409 million bus, or 3%, from 14,791 million bus in 2009-10.

Projected feed and residual use in 2010-11 was projected at 5,400 million bus, up 150 million bus, or 3%, from September and up 233 million bus, or 5%, from a downwardly revised 5,167 million bus in the prior year. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,080 million bus, down 10 million bus from September (with corn use for ethanol unchanged at 4,700 million bus and food and seed use down 10 million bus at 1,380 million bus), but up 150 million bus, or 3%, from an upwardly revised 5,930 million bus in 2009-10.

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 2,000 million bus, down 100 million bus, or 5%, from September but up 13 million bus from 1,987 million bus in 2009-10.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $4.60@5.40 a bus in 2010-11, up 60c from $4@4.80 projected in September and compared with $3.55 a bu in 2009-10 and $4.06 in 2008-09.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 265 million bus, down 85 million bus, or 24%, from 350 million bus in September but up 114 million bus, or 75%, from 151 million bus in 2009-10.

Soybean production was projected at a record 3,408 million bus, down 75 million bus, or 2%, from 3,483 million bus in September but up 49 million bus, or 1%, from 3,359 million bus in 2009. Total supply in 2010-11 was projected at 3,569 million bus, down 74 million bus, or 2%, from 3,643 million bus in September but up 57 million bus, or 2%, from 3,512 million bus in 2009-10.

Total use of soybeans in 2010-11 was projected at 3,305 million bus, up 12 million bus from September but down 56 million bus, or 2%, from 3,361 million bus in 2009-10. Crushings were projected at 1,665 million bus, up 15 million bus from September but down 87 million bus, or 5%, from 1,752 million bus in 2009-10. Exports were projected at a record 1,520 million bus, up 35 million bus, or 2%, from September and up 22 million bus from 1,498 million bus in 2009-10. Residual was projected at 32 million bus, down 38 million bus from September, and seed use was unchanged from September at 88 million bus.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $10@11.50 a bu, up 85c from $9.15@10.65 projected in September and compared with $9.59 in 2009-10 and $9.97 in 2008-09.

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