U.S. 2011 wheat, corn, soybean carryover reduced

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 848 million bus, down 5 million bus from 853 million bus forecast in October and down 128 million bus, or 13%, from 976 million bus in 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Nov. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 827 million bus, down 75 million bus, or 8%, from 902 million bus in October and down 881 million bus, or 52%, from 1,708 million bus in 2010.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 185 million bus, down 80 million bus, or 30%, from 265 million bus in October but up 34 million bus, or 23%, from 151 million bus in 2010.
U.S.D.A. projected 2010-11 carryover numbers were below trade expectations of 869 million bus for wheat, 840 million bus for corn and 240 million bus for soybeans.

U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 2,208 million bus in 2010, down 16 million bus, or 1%, from October and down 10 million bus from 2,218 million bus a year earlier. U.S. 2010-11 wheat imports were projected at 110 million bus, up 10 million bus from October but down 9 million bus from last year. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,294 million bus, down 5 million bus from October but up 301 million bus, or 10%, from 2,993 million bus in 2009-10, the U.S.D.A. said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2010-11 were projected at 1,250 million bus, unchanged from October but up 369 million bus, or 42%, from 881 million bus in 2009-10.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 at 940 million bus, unchanged from October but up 23 million bus, or 3%, from 917 million bus in 2009-10, and seed use at 76 million bus, also unchanged from October but up 7 million bus from 69 million bus last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 180 million bus, unchanged from October and up 30 million bus, or 20%, from 150 million bus in 2009-10. Total use was projected at 2,446 million bus, unchanged from October but up 428 million bus, or 21%, from 2,018 million bus in 2009-10.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 was projected to range from $5.25@5.75 a bus, compared with $5.20@5.80 projected in October and with $4.87 a bu in 2009-10 and $6.78 a bu in 2008-09.

On a by-class basis, the U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2011, carryover of hard winter wheat at 323 million bus, down 15 million bus from October and down 62 million bus from 385 million bus in 2010. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 183 million bus, up 25 million bus from October but down 59 million bus from 242 million bus in 2010.

Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 211 million bus, down 21 million bus from October and down 23 million bus from 234 million bus in 2010.
White wheat carryover was projected at 88 million bus in 2011, unchanged from October but up 8 million bus from 2010.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 43 million bus, up 6 million bus from October and up 8 million bus from 35 million bus in 2010.

World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 172.51 million tonnes, down 2.51 million tonnes from October and down 22.89 million tonnes, or 12%, from 195.4 million tonnes in 2009-10. Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 642.89 million tonnes, up 1.45 million tonnes from October but down 39.81 million tonnes, or 6%, from 682.7 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 665.79 million tonnes, up 2.48 million tonnes from October and up 13.16 million tonnes from 652.63 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 127.23 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes from October but down 8.09 million tonnes, or 6%, from 135.32 million tonnes in the prior year.

“Global wheat supplies are projected slightly higher for 2010-11 as higher world production offsets lower carryin, mostly reflecting higher 2009-10 wheat feeding in China,” the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S. corn production in 2010 was forecast at 12,540 million bus, down 1% from October and down 570 million bus, or 4%, from a record 13,110 million bus in 2009. Total supply for 2010-11 was projected at 14,257 million bus, down 125 million bus, or 1%, from 14,382 million bus in October and down 535 million bus, or 4%, from 14,792 million bus in 2009-10.

Feed and residual use in 2010-11 was projected at 5,300 million bus, down 100 million bus, or 2%, from October but up 141 million bus, or 3%, from a downwardly revised 5,159 million bus in the prior year. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,180 million bus, up 100 million bus, or 2%, from October (with food and seed use unchanged from October at 1,380 million bus but up 10 million bus from last year) and up 242 million bus, or 4%, from an upwardly revised 5,938 million bus in 2009-10. Included in the above was projected corn use for ethanol in 2010-11 at 4,800 million bus, up 100 million bus, or 2%, from October and up 232 million bus, or 5%, from 4,568 million bus last year. Total domestic use was projected at 11,480 million bus, unchanged from October but up 382 million bus, or 3%, from 11,098 million bus in 2010-11.

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 1,950 million bus, down 50 million bus, or 2.5%, from October and down 37 million bus, or 2%, from 1,987 million bus in 2009-10.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $4.80@5.60 a bu in 2010-11, up 20c from $4.60@5.40 projected in October and compared with $3.55 a bu in 2009-10 and $4.06 in 2008-09.
U.S. soybean production was forecast at a record 3,375 million bus in 2010, down 33 million bus, or 1%, from 3,408 million bus in October but up 16 million bus from 3,359 million bus in 2009. Total supply in 2010-11 was projected at 3,536 million bus, down 33 million bus from 3,569 million bus in October but up 24 million bus from 3,512 million bus in 2009-10.

Total use of soybeans in 2010-11 was projected at 3,351 million bus, up 46 million bus from October but down 10 million bus from 3,361 million bus in 2009-10. Crushings were projected at 1,665 million bus, unchanged from October but down 87 million bus, or 5%, from 1,752 million bus in 2009-10. Exports were projected at a record 1,570 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 3%, from October and up 69 million bus, or 5%, from 1,501 million bus in 2009-10. Residual was projected at 29 million bus, down 3 million bus from October but up 11 million bus from 2009-10. Seed use was unchanged from October at 88 million bus, down 2 million bus from 2009-10.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $10.70@12.20 a bu, up 70c from $10@11.50 projected in October and compared with $9.59 in 2009-10 and $9.97 in 2008-09.

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