U.S. 2010 wheat carryover up from January

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected larger 2010 U.S. carryover stocks of wheat but smaller stocks of corn and soybeans compared with January projections in its Feb. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. World wheat carryover for 2010 also was raised from January while corn and soybean carryover projections were lowered.

The projected 2010 U.S.D.A. carryover number for wheat was above the average of pre-report trade expectations but the corn and soybean numbers were below average trade estimates, with the U.S.D.A. numbers falling within the range of trade estimates in all cases.

Projected carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2010, was 981 million bus, up 5 million bus from the January projection of 976 million bus and up 324 million bus, or 49%, from 657 million bus in 2009.

The increase in carryover was the result of a like increase in projected 2009-10 imports, at 115 million bus, which also increased total supply by 5 million bus from January, to 2,988 million bus.

“Imports are raised based on expected shipments of South American and European feed quality wheat into the southeastern U.S. market,” the U.S.D.A. said.

Wheat use projections for 2009-10 were unchanged from January, including food use at 940 million bus, seed use at 72 million bus, feed and residual at 170 million bus, and total domestic use at 1,182 million bus.

Total use in 2009-10 was unchanged at 2,007 million bus.

Although projected 2009-10 total exports were unchanged from January at 825 million bus, wheat by-class exports were raised 10 million bus for hard red winter and lowered 5 million bus each for hard red spring and durum.

Carryover of hard red winter wheat was projected at 421 million bus in 2010, down 10 million bus from January due to a like increase in 2009-10 exports, projected at 310 million bus. Hard red spring carryover was projected at 272 million bus, up 5 million bus from January due to a like decrease in exports, projected at 195 million bus in 2009-10. Durum carryover was projected at 45 million bus, up 5 million bus from January due to a like decrease in exports, projected at 45 million bus in 2009-10.

Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 203 million bus, up 7 million bus from January due to a like increase in projected imports. White wheat carryover was projected at 40 million bus, down 2 million bus from January due to a 2-million-bu decrease in imports in 2009-10.

The average farm price of all wheat was projected at $4.75@4.95 a bu in 2009-10 compared with $4.70@5 a bu in January and $6.78 a bu in 2008-09.

Global 2009-10 wheat production was projected at 677.44 million tonnes, up 1.31 million tonnes from January but down 5.25 million tonnes from record large outturn of 682.69 million tonnes in 2008-09. Production increases were forecast for Argentina and Ukraine.

World wheat ending stocks were projected at 195.86 million tonnes in 2009-10, up 260,000 tonnes from 195.6 million tonnes in January and up 31.85 million tonnes, or 19%, from 164.01 million tonnes in 2008-09.

Projected U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was 1,719 million bus, down 45 million bus, or 3%, from 1,764 million bus projected in January, but 3% above 1,673 million bus in 2009. Carryover was lowered as a result of a projected 100 million increase in 2009-10 corn use for ethanol being partially offset by reductions of 5 million bus for corn sweeteners and 50 million bus in exports.

Unchanged from January were 2009 U.S. corn production at 13,151 million bus, 2009-10 imports at 10 million bus, total supply at 14,834 million bus, and feed and residual use at 5,550 million bus.

Food and seed use was projected at 1,265 million bus, down 5 million bus from January and down 11 million bus from 2008-09. Projected corn use for ethanol was 4,300 million bus, up 100 million bus from January and up 623 million bus, or 17%, from 2008-09.

“November’s record ethanol production was up 3% from the previous record in October as higher prices for ethanol and distillers’ grains boosted ethanol producer returns,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Although returns have declined since November, recently lower corn prices continue to support profitability for ethanol producers.”

Corn exports in 2009-10 were projected at 2,000 million bus, down 50 million bus from January “on increased competition from Argentina,” the U.S.D.A. said.

Total domestic corn use was projected at 11,115 million bus in 2009-10, up 95 million bus from January and up 917 million bus, or 9%, from 2008-09. Total corn use was projected at 13,115 million bus, up 45 million bus from January and up 1,059 million bus from 12,056 million bus the previous year.

The average corn price was projected to fall in a range of $3.45@3.95 a bu compared with $3.40@4 a bu projected in January and with $4.06 in 2008-09.

World corn production in 2009-10 was projected at 797.83 million tonnes, up 1.38 million tonnes from 796.45 million tonnes in January and up 6.33 million tonnes from 791.5 million tonnes in 2008-09. Global corn ending stocks were projected at 134.04 million tonnes for 2009-10, down 2.15 million tonnes from 136.19 million tonnes in January and down 11.84 million tonnes, or 8%, from 145.88 million tonnes in 2008-09.

“Argentina corn production is raised 2.2 million tonnes with higher expected yields and harvested area as growing conditions continue to improve with additional rainfall in the main corn areas,” the U.S.D.A. said.
U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was projected at 210 million bus, down 35 million bus, or 14%, from 245 million bus projected in January but up 72 million bus, or 52%, from 138 million bus in 2009, the U.S.D.A. said.

Soybean exports were projected at 1,400 million bus in 2009-10, up 25 million bus, or 2%, from January and up 9% from 1,283 million bus in 2008-09.

“Although a record South American harvest is expected to reach the market in coming weeks, tight old crop South American supplies resulting from last year’s historic drought in Argentina continue to support U.S. exports,” the U.S.D.A. said.

Domestic soybean crush was projected at 1,720 million bus in 2009-10, up 10 million bus from January and up 58 million bus, or 3%, from a year earlier. Projected seed use at 94 million bus and residual at 83 million bus were unchanged from January.

Soybean production at 3,361 million bus, beginning stocks at 138 million bus and imports at 8 million bus along with total 2009-10 supply at 3,507 million bus were unchanged from January. Total use was projected at 3,297 million bus, up 35 million bus from January and up 8% from 3,047 million bus in 2008-09.

The average farm price of soybeans was reduced 20c from January to $8.70@10.20 a bu and compared with $9.97 in 2008-09 and $10.10 in 2007-08.

Global soybean production in 2009-10 was projected at 255.02 million tonnes, up 1.64 million tonnes from 253.38 million tonnes in January and up 44.16 million tonnes, or 21%, from 210.86 million tonnes in 2008-09. Ending stocks were projected at 59.73 million tonnes in 2009-10, down 70,000 tonnes from January but up 18.09 million tonnes, or 43%, from 41.64 million tonnes the previous year.

Soybean production in Brazil was projected at a record 66 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes from January and up 16% from 57 million tonnes in 2008-09. Production in Argentina was unchanged from January at 53 million tonnes but was up 66% from 32 million tonnes last year.

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