U.S. 2010 wheat carryover tops 1 billion bus

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected higher 2010 U.S. carryover stocks of wheat and corn but lower stocks of soybeans compared with February projections in its March 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. World 2010 carryover projections were raised from February for wheat, corn and soybeans.

The projected 2010 U.S.D.A. carryover numbers for wheat and corn were above the average pre-report trade expectations but the soybean number was below the average trade estimate.

Projected carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2010, was 1,001 million bus, up 20 million from the February projection of 981 million bus and up 344 million, or 52%, from 657 million bus in 2009.

The increase in carryover was the result of a 20-million-bu decrease in projected food use of wheat in 2009-10 based on mill grind data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the U.S.D.A. said. Food use of wheat was projected at 920 million bus, down 20 million from 940 million bus projected in February and 7 million below 2008-09 use of 927 million bus.

“High flour extraction rates for a second straight year are reducing the amount of grain needed to produce flour,” the U.S.D.A. said. “At the same time, declining per capita consumption is reducing demand for flour and wheat.”

Other use projections were unchanged from February, including seed use at 72 million bus in 2009-10, feed and residual use at 170 million bus and exports at 825 million bus, which were down 190 million, or 19%, from 1,015 million bus last year. Total domestic use was projected at 1,162 million bus, down 20 million from February and down 98 million, or 8%, from 1,260 million bus in 2008-09, and total wheat use at 1,987 million bus, down 20 million from 2,007 million bus in February and down 288 million, or 13%, from 2,275 million bus in 2008-09.

Carryover projections were adjusted from February for all wheat classes except durum, which was at 45 million bus. Projected 2010 carryover of hard winter wheat was 420 million bus, down 1 million from February, hard spring was 277 million bus, up 5 million, soft red was 207 million bus, up 4 million, and white wheat was 52 million bus, up 12 million.

The average farm price of all wheat was projected at $4.80@5 a bu in 2009-10 compared with $4.75@4.95 in February, $6.78 in 2008-09 and $6.48 in 2007-08.

Global 2009-10 wheat production was projected at 678.01 million tonnes, up 570,000 tonnes from February but down 4.64 million tonnes from record large outturn of 682.65 million tonnes in 2008-09. Production in Argentina was forecast at 9.6 million tonnes, up 600,000 tonnes from February and from a year earlier.

World wheat ending stocks were projected at 196.77 million tonnes in 2009-10, up 910,000 tonnes from 195.86 million tonnes in February and up 31.2 million tonnes, or 19%, from 165.57 million tonnes in 2008-09.

Projected U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was 1,799 million bus, up 80 million, or 5%, from 1,719 million bus projected in February and 8% above 1,673 million bus in 2009. Carryover was raised as a result of a projected 100-million-bu decrease in 2009-10 corn exports only partially offset by a 20-million-bu reduction in 2009 corn production.

U.S. 2009 corn production was estimated at 13,131 million bus, down 20 million from February but 9% above 2008 production of 12,092 million bus and still the largest on record. Total 2009-10 corn supply also was lowered by 20 million bus from February, to 14,814 million bus.

Domestic corn use in 2009-10 was unchanged from February at 11,115 million bus, including 5,550 million bus for feed and residual, 1,265 million bus for food and 4,300 million bus for ethanol.

Corn exports in 2009-10 were projected at 1,900 million bus, down 100 million from February due to increasing competition from larger world supplies, the U.S.D.A. said.

Total corn use was projected at 13,015 million bus, down 100 million from February but up 959 million, or 8%, from 12,056 million bus the previous year.

The average corn price was projected to fall in a range of $3.45@3.75 a bu compared with $3.45@3.95 in February, $4.06 in 2008-09 and $4.20 in 2007-08.

World corn production in 2009-10 was projected at 803.69 million tonnes, up 5.86 million tonnes from 797.83 million tonnes in February and up 9.17 million tonnes from 794.52 million tonnes in 2008-09.

Corn production in 2009-10 was raised from February by 3.8 million tonnes, to 21 million tonnes, in Argentina, and by 2 million tonnes, to 13.5 million tonnes, in South Africa, the U.S.D.A. said.
Global corn ending stocks were projected at 140.15 million tonnes for 2009-10, up 6.11 million tonnes, or 5%, from 134.04 million tonnes in February but down 6.25 million tonnes, or 4%, from 146.4 million tonnes in 2008-09.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was projected at 190 million bus, down 20 million bus, or 10%, from 210 million bus projected in February but up 52 million, or 38%, from 138 million bus in 2009, the U.S.D.A. said.

Soybean exports were projected at a record 1,420 million bus in 2009-10, up 20 million from February and up 11% from 1,283 million bus in 2008-09.

Domestic soybean crush was projected at 1,730 million bus in 2009-10, up 10 million from February and up 68 million, or 4%, from a year earlier. Projected seed use at 89 million bus was down 5 million from February and 1 million below a year earlier. Residual was unchanged from February at 83 million bus.

Soybean production in 2009 was estimated at 3,359 million bus, down 2 million from February but 13% above 2,967 million bus in 2008 and still record large. Soybean imports in 2009-10 were raised by 7 million bus, to 15 million bus. Total 2009-10 soybean supply was projected at 3,512 million bus, up 5 million from February and 10% above 3,185 million bus in 2008-09. Total use was projected at 3,322 million bus, up 25 million from February and up 9% from 3,047 million bus in 2008-09.

The average farm price of soybeans in 2009-10 was projected at $8.95@9.95 a bu compared with $8.7@10.20 in February, $9.97 in 2008-09 and $10.10 in 2007-08.

Global soybean production in 2009-10 was projected at 255.91 million tonnes, up 890,000 tonnes from 255.02 million tonnes in February and up 45.01 million tonnes, or 21%, from 210.9 million tonnes in 2008-09. Ending stocks were projected at 60.67 million tonnes in 2009-10, up 940,000 tonnes from February and up 18.65 million tonnes, or 44%, from 42.02 million tonnes the previous year.

Soybean production in Brazil was projected at a record 67 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes from February and up 18% from 57 million tonnes in 2008-09.

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