U.S. 2010 wheat carryover reduced from March

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected smaller 2010 U.S. carryover stocks of wheat and rice but larger stocks of corn compared with March projections in its April 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. U.S. soybean carryover was unchanged from March. World 2010 carryover projections were lowered for wheat and rice but raised for corn and soybeans compared with March projections.

The projected 2010 U.S.D.A. carryover numbers for U.S. wheat, corn and soybeans were below the average of pre-report trade expectations.

Projected carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2010, was 950 million bus, down 51 million bus from the March projection of 1,001 million bus but 293 million, or 45%, above 657 million bus in 2009.

The decrease in carryover was the result of projected increases in use for seed, feed and residual and exports in 2009-10. Supply projections were unchanged from March.

The U.S.D.A. projected seed used in 2009-10 at 73 million bus, up 1 million from March but down 2 million from 2008-09. Feed and residual use was projected at 180 million bus, up 10 million from March but down 78 million from last year. Food use was unchanged from March at 920 million bus, down 7 million from a year ago. Total domestic use was projected at 1,173 million bus, up 11 million from March but down 87 million from 1,260 million bus in 2008-09.

U.S. 2009-10 wheat exports were projected at 865 million bus, up 40 million from March but down 150 million, or 15%, from 1,015 million bus in 2008-09. Total use in 2009-10 was projected at 2,038 million bus, up 51 million from March but down 237 million, or 10%, from 2,275 million bus in 2008-09.

Export projections were increased from March based on “the strong pace of grain, flour and product shipments in recent weeks, current outstanding sales and reduced export prospects for some key competitors,” the U.S.D.A. said. “By-class export projections are raised for hard red winter, hard red spring and durum wheat.”

Total 2009-10 U.S. wheat supply was unchanged from March at 2,988 million bus, including beginning stocks of 657 million, production in 2009 of 2,216 million and imports of 115 million.

Carryover projections were adjusted from March for all wheat classes except white wheat at 52 million bus. Projected 2010 carryover of hard winter wheat was 400 million bus, down 20 million from March, hard spring was 250 million bus, down 27 million, soft red was 211 million bus, up 4 million, and durum was 37 million bus, down 8 million.

The average farm price of all wheat was projected at $4.85@4.95 a bu in 2009-10 compared with $4.80@5 in March, $6.78 in 2008-09 and $6.48 in 2007-08.

Global 2009-10 wheat production was projected at 678.42 million tonnes, up 410,000 tonnes from March but down 4.85 million tonnes from record large outturn of 683.27 million tonnes in 2008-09.

World wheat ending stocks were projected at 195.82 million tonnes in 2009-10, down 950,000 tonnes from 196.77 million tonnes in March but up 30.57 million tonnes, or 19%, from 165.23 million tonnes in 2008-09.

Projected U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was 1,899 million bus, up 100 million, or 6%, from 1,799 million bus projected in March and 14% above 1,673 million bus in 2009. Carryover was raised as a result of a projected 100-million-bu decrease in 2009-10 domestic feed and residual use, projected at 5,450 million bus compared with 5,550 million bus in March and 5,246 million bus last year.

“Corn feed and residual use is projected 100 million bus lower as March 1 stocks and a record January ethanol production indicate lower-than-expected December-February feed and residual disappearance,” the U.S.D.A. said.

As a result, total domestic corn use in 2009-10 was projected at 11,015 million bus, down 100 million from March but up 817 million, or 8%, from 10,198 million bus last year. Unchanged from March were food use at 1,265 million bus and use for ethanol at 4,300 million bus.

Corn exports in 2009-10 were projected at 1,900 million bus, unchanged from March but up 42 million bus from a year earlier, the U.S.D.A. said. Total use was projected at 12,915 million bus in 2009-10, down 100 million bus from March but up 859 million, or 7%, from 2008-09.

Total corn supply in 2009-10 was unchanged from March at 14,814 million bus, including 2009 production at 13,131 million bus, carryover of 1,673 million bus and imports of 10 million bus.

The average corn price was projected to fall in a range of $3.50@3.70 a bu compared $3.45@3.75 in March, $4.06 in 2008-09 and $4.20 in 2007-08.

World corn production in 2009-10 was projected at 805.68 million tonnes, up 1.99 million tonnes from 803.69 million tonnes in March and up 10.89 million tonnes from 794.79 million tonnes in 2008-09.

Global corn ending stocks were projected at 144.20 million tonnes for 2009-10, up 4.05 million tonnes, or 3%, from 140.15 million tonnes in March but down 3.3 million tonnes from 147.5 million tonnes in 2008-09.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was projected at 190 million bus, unchanged from March but up 52 million, or 38%, from 138 million bus in 2009, the U.S.D.A. said.

Soybean exports were projected at a record 1,445 million bus in 2009-10, up 25 million from March and up 162 million, or 13%, from the previous record of 1,283 million bus in 2008-09.

“The strong shipment pace through March is projected to carry U.S. soybean exports to a record,” the U.S.D.A. said, “despite an expected decline in exports for the remainder of the marketing year due to strong competition from South America.”

Domestic soybean crush was projected at 1,730 million bus in 2009-10, unchanged from March but up 68 million, or 4%, from a year earlier. Projected seed use at 91 million bus was up about 2 million from March and up 1 million from a year earlier. Residual was reduced 26 million from March to 57 million bus. Total use in 2009-10 was projected at 3,323 million bus, up about 1 million from March and up 276 million, or 9%, from 3,047 million bus in 2008-09.

Total 2009-10 soybean supply was unchanged from March at 3,512 million bus, including 2009 production at 3,359 million bus, imports at 15 million bus and beginning stocks at 138 million bus.

The average farm price of soybeans in 2009-10 was projected to fall in a range of $9.20@9.70 a bu compared with $8.95@9.95 in March, $9.97 in 2008-09 and $10.10 in 2007-08.

Global soybean production in 2009-10 was projected at 257.46 million tonnes, up 1.55 million tonnes from 255.91 million tonnes in March and up 45.69 million tonnes, or 22%, from 211.77 million tonnes in 2008-09. Ending stocks were projected at 62.96 million tonnes in 2009-10, up 2.29 million tonnes from March and up 20.14 million tonnes, or 47%, from 42.82 million tonnes the previous year.

Soybean production in Brazil was projected at a record 67.5 million tonnes, up 500,000 tonnes from March and up 17% from 57.8 million tonnes in 2008-09. Production in Argentina was projected at 54 million tonnes, up 1 million from March and up 22 million, or 69%, from the drought-reduced crop of 32 million tonnes in 2008-09.

U.S. rice ending stocks were projected at 32.3 million cwt, down 8.5 million from March but 1.9 million above 30.4 million cwt last year. Domestic and residual use in 2009-10 was projected at a record 136 million cwt, up 5.5 million from March and up 7.6 million, or 6%, from 128.4 million cwt last year. Exports in 2009-10 were projected at 103 million cwt, up 3 million from March and up 9.4 million, or 10%, from 93.6 million cwt in 2008-09.

Global rice production in 2009-10 was projected at 440.81 million tonnes, up 530,000 tonnes from 2008-09, consumption at 441.51 million tonnes, up 940,000 tonnes, and ending stocks at 90.2 million tonnes, down 730,000 tonnes.

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