U.S.D.A. raises 2011 wheat carryover 10% from June

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 1,093 million bus, up 102 million bus, or 10%, from 991 million bus forecast in June and up 120 million bus, or 12%, from 973 million bus in 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its June 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The projected U.S.D.A. carryover was above the average pre-report trade expectations for both years.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,216 million bus for 2010-11, up 149 million bus, or 7%, from 2,067 million bus in June and even with a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,289 million bus for 2010-11, up 182 million bus, or 6%, from June and up 301 million bus, or 10%, from 2,988 million bus in 2009-10, the U.S.D.A. said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2010-11 were projected at 1,000 million bus, up 100 million bus, or 11%, from June and up 135 million bus, or 16%, from 865 million bus in 2009-10.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 at 940 million bus, unchanged from June but up 20 million bus, or 2%, from 920 million bus in 2009-10, and seed use at 76 million bus, also unchanged from June but up 6 million bus from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 180 million bus, down 20 million bus, or 10%, from 200 million bus in June but up 21 million bus, or 13%, from 159 million bus in 2009-10. Total use was projected at 2,196 million bus, up 80 million bus, or 4%, from June and up 182 million bus, or 4%, from 2,014 million bus in 2009-10.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 was projected to fall in a range of $4.20@5 a bus, compared with $4@4.80 in June and $4.87 estimated in 2009-10.

On a by-class basis, the U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2011, carryover of hard winter wheat at 476 million bus, up 91 million bus, or 24%, from 385 million bus in 2010. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 162 million bus, down 79 million bus, or 33%, from 241 million bus this year.

Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 333 million bus, up 99 million bus, or 42%, from 234 million bus in 2010.

White wheat carryover was projected at 88 million bus in 2011, up 9 million bus, or 11%, from 79 million bus in 2010.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 34 million bus, down 1 million bus, or 3%, from 35 million bus in 2010.

Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 661.07 million tonnes, down 7.45 million tonnes, or 1%, from June and down 18.78 million tonnes, or 3%, from 679.85 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 667.04 million tonnes, down 45,000 tonnes from June but up 15.05 million tonnes, or 2%, from 651.99 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 131.28 million tonnes, down 80,000 tonnes from 131.36 million tonnes in June but up 2.45 million tonnes, or 2%, from 128.83 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 187.05 million tonnes, down 6.88 million tonnes, or 4%, from June and down 5.97 million tonnes, or 3%, from 193.02 million tonnes in 2009-10.
U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 1,373 million bus, down 200 million bus, or 13%, from 1,573 million bus in June and down 105 million bus, or 7%, from 1,478 million bus in 2010.

The U.S.D.A. numbers were above analysts’ expectations for both years.

Corn production in 2010 was projected at 13,245 million bus, down 125 million bus, or 1%, from June but up 135 million bus, or 1%, from 13,110 million bus in 2009. Total supply for 2010-11 was projected at 14,733 million bus, down 250 million bus, or 2%, from June and down 60 million bus from 14,793 million bus in 2009-10, due to lower beginning stocks and production.

Domestic use projections for 2010-11 were unchanged from June with feed and residual use 5,350 million bus and food, seed and industrial use at 6,060 million bus (including corn for ethanol at 4,700 million bus and food and seed use at 1,360 million bus).

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 1,950 million bus, down 50 million bus, or 3%, from 2,000 million bus in June and equal to 2009-10 exports.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $3.45@4.05 a bu, compared with $3.30@3.90 forecast in June and $3.50@3.60 in 2009-10.

World corn ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 141.08 million tonnes, down 6.24 million tonnes, or 4%, from 147.32 million tonnes in June but up 1.49 million tonnes, or 1%, from 139.59 million tonnes in 2009-10. World corn production was projected at 832.38 million tonnes, down 3.39 million tonnes from 835.77 million tonnes in June but up 23.36 million tonnes, or 3%, from 809.02 million tonnes in 2009-10.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 360 million bus, unchanged from June but up 185 million bus, or 106%, from 175 million bus estimated for this year. U.S.D.A. carryover numbers were slightly above pre-report trade expectations.

Soybean production was projected at 3,345 million bus, up 35 million bus from 3,310 million bus in June but down 14 million bus from 3,359 million bus in 2009. Total supply in 2010-11 was raised 35 million bus as a 10-million-bu decrease in beginning stocks partially offset the increase in production.

Total use of soybeans in 2010-11 was projected at 3,170 million bus, up 26 million bus from 3,144 million bus in June but down 168 million bus, or 5%, from 3,338 million bus in 2009-10. Crushings were projected at 1,645 million bus, up 5 million bus from June but down 100 million bus, or 6%, from 1,745 million bus in 2009-10.

Exports were projected at 1,370 million bus, up 20 million bus from June but down 90 million bus, or 6%, from 1,460 million bus in 2009-10. Residual was raised 1 million bus from June to 66 million bus.
The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $8.10@9.60 a bus, compared with $8@9.5 in June and $9.55 this year.

Global 2010-11 soybean ending stocks were projected at 67.76 million tonnes, up 770,000 tonnes from 66.99 million tonnes in June and up 2.41 million tonnes, or 4%, from 65.35 million tonnes this year. Global soybean production in 2010-11 was projected at 251.29 million tonnes, up 1.36 million tonnes from 249.93 million tonnes in June but down 8.41 million tonnes, or 3%, from 259.7 million tonnes in 2009-10.

Carryover of U.S. rice on Aug. 1, 2011 was projected at 67.4 million cwts, up 22 million cwts, or 48%, from 45.4 million cwts in June and up 29 million cwts, or 76%, from 38.4 million cwts this year. The increase was the result of larger beginning stocks and production coupled with lower domestic use and exports.

Global rice ending stocks in 2010-11 were projected at 96.61 million tonnes, up 340,000 tonnes from 96.27 million tonnes in June and up 7.17 million tonnes, or 8%, from 89.44 million tonnes in 2009-10.

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