U.S. 2011 wheat carryover down 13% from July

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON —U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 952 million bus, down 141 million bus, or 13%, from 1,093 million bus forecast in July and down 21 million bus, or 2%, from 973 million bus in 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The projected U.S.D.A. carryover was below the average pre-report trade expectation of 982 million bus.
U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,265 million bus for 2010-11, up 49 million bus, or 2%, from 2,216 million bus in July and a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,338 million bus for 2010-11, up 49 million bus, or 1%, from July and up 347 million bus, or 12%, from 2,991 million bus in 2009-10, the U.S.D.A. said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2010-11 were projected at 1,200 million bus, up 200 million bus, or 20%, from July and up 319 million bus, or 36%, from 881 million bus in 2009-10.

“Exports are projected 200 million bus higher with declines in foreign production, particularly in the F.S.U.-12, reducing global supplies and making U.S. wheat competitive in key Middle East and North Africa markets,” the U.S.D.A. said.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 at 940 million bus, unchanged from July but up 23 million bus, or 3%, from 917 million bus in 2009-10, and seed use at 76 million bus, also unchanged from July but up 6 million bus from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 170 million bus, down 10 million bus, or 6%, from 180 million bus in July but up 21 million bus, or 15%, from 149 million bus in 2009-10. Total use was projected at 2,386 million bus, up 190 million bus, or 9%, from July and up 368 million bus, or 18%, from 2,018 million bus in 2009-10.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 was projected to fall in a range of $4.70@5.50 a bus, up 50c from July and compared with $4.87 in 2009-10.

On a by-class basis, the U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2011, carryover of hard winter wheat at 379 million bus, down 97 million bus, or 20%, from 476 million bus in July and down 6 million bus from 385 million bus in 2010. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 179 million bus, up 17 million bus, or 10%, from 162 million bus in July but down 62 million bus, or 26%, from 241 million bus in 2010.

Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 259 million bus, down 74 million bus, or 22%, from 333 million bus in July but up 25 million bus, or 11%, from 234 million bus in 2010.

White wheat carryover was projected at 96 million bus in 2011, up 8 million bus, or 9%, from 88 million bus in July and up 17 million bus, or 22%, from 79 million bus in 2010.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 39 million bus, up 5 million bus, or 15%, from 34 million bus in July and up 4 million bus, or 11%, from 35 million bus in 2010.

Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 645.73 million tonnes, down 15.34 million tonnes, or 2%, from July and down 34.57 million tonnes, or 5%, from 680.3 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 664.94 million tonnes, down 2.1 million tonnes from July but up 13.1 million tonnes, or 2%, from 651.84 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 124.67 million tonnes, down 6.61 million tonnes from 131.28 million tonnes in July and down 7.56 million tonnes, or 6%, from 132.23 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 174.76 million tonnes, down 12.29 million tonnes, or 7%, from July and down 19.21 million tonnes, or 10%, from 193.97 million tonnes in 2009-10.

“Production in Russia is lowered 8 million tonnes as continued extreme drought and record heat during July and early August have further reduced summer crop prospects,” the U.S.D.A. said. Russian wheat production was forecast at 45 million tonnes, down 15% from 53 million tonnes in July and down 27% from 61.7 million tonnes in 2009-10.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 1,312 million bus, down 61 million bus, or 4%, from 1,373 million bus in July and down 114 million bus, or 8%, from 1,426 million bus in 2010.

The U.S.D.A. number was above the average of analysts’ expectations for 2011 but below for 2010.

Corn production in 2010 was projected at a record 13,365 million bus, up 120 million bus, or 1%, from July and up 255 million bus, or 2%, from 13,110 million bus in 2009. Total supply for 2010-11 was projected at 14,802 million bus, up 69 million bus from July and up 11 million bus from 14,791 million bus in 2009-10.

Projected feed and residual use in 2010-11 was unchanged from July at 5,350 million bus but down 175 million bus, or 3%, from 5,525 million bus the prior year. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,090 million bus, up 30 million bus from July (including corn for ethanol at 4,700 million bus, unchanged, and food and seed use at 1,390 million bus, up 30 million bus), and up 225 million bus, or 4%, from 5,865 million bus in 2009-10.

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 2,050 million bus, up 100 million bus, or 5%, from 1,950 million bus in July and up 75 million bus, or 4%, from 1,975 million bus the previous year.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $3.50@4.10 a bu, up 5c from July and compared with $3.50@3.60 in 2009-10 and $4.06 in 2008-09.

World corn ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 139.28 million tonnes, down 1.88 million tonnes, or 1%, from 141.08 million tonnes in July but up 170,000 tonnes from 139.03 million tonnes in 2009-10. World corn production was projected at 831.59 million tonnes, down 790,000 tonnes from 832.38 million tonnes in July but up 23.14 million tonnes, or 3%, from 808.45 million tonnes in 2009-10.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 360 million bus, unchanged from July but up 200 million bus, or 125%, from 160 million bus estimated for this year. The U.S.D.A. carryover number was above the average pre-report trade estimate for 2011 but slightly below for 2010.

Soybean production was projected at a record 3,433 million bus, up 88 million bus, or 3%, from 3,345 million bus in July and up 74 million bus, or 2%, from 3,359 million bus in 2009. Total supply in 2010-11 was projected at 3,603 million bus, up 73 million bus, or 2%, from 3,530 million bus, in July and up 91 million bus, or 3%, from 3,512 million bus in 2009-10.

Total use of soybeans in 2010-11 was projected at 3,243 million bus, up 73 million bus, or 2%, from 3,170 million bus in July but down 110 million bus, or 3%, from 3,353 million bus in 2009-10. Crushings were projected at 1,650 million bus, up 5 million bus from July but down 100 million bus, or 6%, from 1,750 million bus in 2009-10. Exports were projected at 1,435 million bus, up 65 million bus, or 5%, from July but down 35 million bus, or 2%, from 1,470 million bus in 2009-10. Residual was raised 3 million bus from July to 70 million bus, and seed use was unchanged from July at 88 million bus.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $8.50@10 a bus, up 40c from July and compared with $9.60 this year and $9.97 in 2008-09.

Global 2010-11 soybean ending stocks were projected at 64.73 million tonnes, down 3.03 million tonnes, or 3%, from 67.76 million tonnes in July but up 1.21 million tonnes, or 2%, from 63.52 million tonnes this year. Global soybean production in 2010-11 was projected at 253.69 million tonnes, up 2.4 million tonnes from 251.29 million tonnes in July but down 6.21 million tonnes, or 2%, from 259.9 million tonnes in 2009-10.

Carryover of U.S. rice on Aug. 1, 2011, was projected at 56.8 million cwts, down 10.6 million cwts, or 16%, from 67.4 million cwts in July but up 22.9 million cwts, or 68%, from 33.9 million cwts in 2010.

Global rice ending stocks in 2010-11 were projected at 97.52 million tonnes, up 910,000 tonnes from 96.61 million tonnes in July and up 2.97 million tonnes, or 3%, from 94.97 million tonnes in 2009-10.

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