U.S. 2011 wheat carryover down 5% from August

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 902 million bus, down 50 million bus, or 5%, from 952 million bus forecast in August and down 71 million bus, or 7%, from 973 million bus in 2010, but still the second highest in more than a decade, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Sept. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,265 million bus for 2010-11, unchanged from August but 2% above 2,216 million bus a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,338 million bus, unchanged from August but up 347 million bus, or 12%, from 2,991 million bus in 2009-10, the U.S.D.A. said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2010-11 were projected at 1,250 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 4%, from August and up 369 million bus, or 42%, from 881 million bus in 2009-10.

“Strong early season sales and reduced supplies in EU-27, particularly of higher quality wheat, support an improved outlook for U.S. exports,” the U.S.D.A. said.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 at 940 million bus, unchanged from August but up 23 million bus, or 3%, from 917 million bus in 2009-10, and seed use at 76 million bus, also unchanged from August but up 6 million bus from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 170 million bus, unchanged from August but up 21 million bus, or 15%, from 149 million bus in 2009-10. Total use was projected at 2,436 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 2%, from August and up 418 million bus, or 21%, from 2,018 million bus in 2009-10.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 was projected to fall in a range of $4.95@5.65 a bus, up from $4.70@5.50 in August and compared with $4.87 a bu in 2009-10 and $6.78 a bu in 2008-09.

On a by-class basis, the U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2011, carryover of hard winter wheat at 349 million bus, down 30 million bus, or 8%, from 379 million bus in August and down 36 million bus, or 9%, from 385 million bus in 2010. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 179 million bus, unchanged from August but down 62 million bus, or 26%, from 241 million bus in 2010.

Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 249 million bus, down 10 million bus, or 4%, from 259 million bus in August but up 15 million bus, or 6%, from 234 million bus in 2010.

White wheat carryover was projected at 86 million bus in 2011, down 10 million bus, or 10%, from 96 million bus in August but up 7 million bus, or 9%, from 79 million bus in 2010.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 39 million bus, unchanged from August but up 4 million bus, or 11%, from 35 million bus in 2010.

Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 643.01 million tonnes, down 2.72 million tonnes from August and down 37.42 million tonnes, or 5%, from 680.43 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 661.19 million tonnes, down 3.75 million tonnes from August but up 11.66 million tonnes, or 2%, from 649.53 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 126.03 million tonnes, up 1.36 million tonnes from 124.67 million tonnes in August but down 7.72 million tonnes, or 6%, from 133.75 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 177.79 million tonnes, up 3.03 million tonnes, or 2%, from August but down 18.18 million tonnes, or 9%, from 195.97 million tonnes in 2009-10.

Increased stocks and production in Canada partially offset lower production forecasts for Russia and EU-27, the U.S.D.A. said, while higher ending stocks for EU-27, Canada and Australia more than offset reductions in Russia and Pakistan. Russian 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 42.5 million tonnes, down 2.5 million tonnes from August and down 19.2 million tonnes, or 31%, from 61.7 million tonnes in 2009-10 “based on the latest harvest results for the drought-affected central growing areas in the Volga and Urals Federal Districts,” the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 1,116 million bus, down 196 million bus, or 15%, from 1,312 million bus in August and down 270 million bus, or 19%, from a downwardly revised 1,386 million bus in 2010.

Corn production in 2010 was projected at a record 13,160 million bus, down 2% from August but up 50 million bus from 13,110 million bus in 2009. Total supply for 2010-11 was projected at 14,556 million bus, down 246 million bus, or 2%, from August and down 235 million bus from 14,791 million bus in 2009-10.

Projected feed and residual use in 2010-11 was projected at 5,250 million bus, down 100 million bus, or 2%, from August and down 275 million bus, or 5%, from 5,525 million bus the prior year. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,090 million bus, unchanged from August (including corn for ethanol at 4,700 million bus and food and seed use at 1,390 million bus), but up 190 million bus, or 3%, from an upwardly revised 5,900 million bus in 2009-10.

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 2,100 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 2%, from August and up 120 million bus, or 6%, from an upwardly revised 1,980 million bus in 2009-10.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $4@4.80 a bus in 2010-11, up from $3.50@4.10 projected in August and compared with $3.55 a bu in 2009-10 and $4.06 in 2008-09.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 350 million bus, down 10 million bus, or 3%, from 360 million bus in August but up 200 million bus, or 133%, from a downwardly revised 150 million bus in 2009-10.

Soybean production was projected at a record 3,483 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 1%, from 3,433 million bus in August and up 124 million bus, or 4%, from 3,359 million bus in 2009. Total supply in 2010-11 was projected at 3,643 million bus, up 40 million bus, or 1%, from 3,603 million bus in August and up 131 million bus, or 4%, from 3,512 million bus in 2009-10.

Total use of soybeans in 2010-11 was projected at 3,293 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 2%, from 3,243 million bus in August but down 70 million bus, or 2%, from 3,363 million bus in 2009-10. Crushings were projected at 1,650 million bus, unchanged from August but down 100 million bus, or 6%, from 1,750 million bus in 2009-10. Exports were projected at 1,485 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 3%, from August but down 10 million bus from an upwardly revised record 1,495 million bus in 2009-10. Residual was unchanged from August at 70 million bus, as was seed use at 88 million bus.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $9.15@10.65 a bu, up from $8.50@10 projected in August and compared with $9.60 in 2009-10 and $9.97 in 2008-09.

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