U.S. 2011 wheat, corn soybean carryover down

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. 2011 carryover of wheat, corn and soybeans were reduced from December projections, while 2010 U.S. corn and soybean production were reduced from November estimates, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in reports this morning.

U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 818 million bus, down 40 million bus, or 5%, from 858 million bus forecast in December and down 158 million bus, or 16%, from 976 million bus in 2010, the U.S.D.A. said in its Jan. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 745 million bus, down 87 million bus, or 10%, from 832 million bus in December, and down 963 million bus, or 56%, from 1,708 million bus in 2010.

U.S. 2010 corn production was revised to 12,447 million bus, down 1% from 12,540 million bus forecast in November and down 5% from a record 13,092 million bus in 2009. Average corn yield was estimated at 152.8 bus an acre, down 1.5 bus from November and down 11.9 bus from a record 164.7 bus in 2009. Harvested area was estimated at 81.4 million acres, up slightly from November and up 2% from 2009.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 140 million bus, down 25 million bus, or 15%, from 165 million bus in December, and down 11 million bus, or 7%, from 151 million bus in 2010.

U.S. 2010 soybean production was estimated at 3,329 million bus, down 1% from 3,375 million bus forecast in November and also down 1% from a record 3,359 million bus last year, the U.S.D.A. said. The average soybean yield was 43.5 bus an acre, down 0.4 bu from the November estimate and down 0.5 bu from a record 44 bus in 2009. Harvested area was a record 76.6 million acres, up slightly from 2009.

U.S.D.A. projected 2010-11 carryover numbers for wheat, corn and soybeans and U.S.D.A. revised 2010 production numbers for corn and soybeans all were below the average of pre-report trade expectations. Futures prices traded sharply higher for all three commodities following the reports.

“U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected 40 million bus lower this month as a reduction in expected feed and residual use is more than offset by higher projected exports,” the U.S.D.A. said. Supply projections for 2010-11 were unchanged from December with beginning stocks at 976 million bus, 2010 production at 2,208 million bus, imports at 110 million bus and total supply at 3,294 million bus.

Total use was projected at 2,476 million bus, up 40 million bus from December and up 458 million bus, or 23%, from 2,018 million bus in 2009-10.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2010-11 were projected at 1,300 million bus, up 50 million bus from December and up 419 million bus, or 48%, from 881 million bus in 2009-10.

“Exports are projected 50 million bus higher reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date and reduced competition with lower foreign supplies of milling quality wheat,” the U.S.D.A. said.

Feed and residual use was projected at 170 million bus, down 10 million bus from December but up 20 million bus, or 13%, from 150 million bus in 2009-10. The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 at 930 million bus, unchanged from December but up 13 million bus from 917 million bus in 2009-10. Seed use also was unchanged from December at 76 million bus but was up 7 million bus from 69 million bus a year earlier.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 was projected to range from $5.50@5.80 a bus, compared with $5.30@5.70 projected in December and with $4.87 a bu in 2009-10 and $6.78 a bu in 2008-09.
On a by-class basis, the U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2011, carryover of hard winter wheat at 313 million bus, down 25 million bus from December and down 72 million bus, or 19%, from 385 million bus in 2010.
Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 173 million bus, down 15 million bus from December and down 69 million bus, or 29%, from 242 million bus in 2010.

Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 201 million bus, unchanged from December but down 33 million bus from 234 million bus in 2010.

White wheat carryover was projected at 83 million bus in 2011, unchanged from December but up 3 million bus from 2010.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 48 million bus, also unchanged from December but up 13 million bus from 35 million bus in 2010.

World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 177.99 million tonnes, up 1.27 million tonnes from December but down 20.71 million tonnes, or 10%, from 197.43 million tonnes in 2009-10. Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 645.82 million tonnes, down 690,000 tonnes from December and down 36.78 million tonnes, or 5%, from 682.6 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 665.26 million tonnes, down 1.21 million tonnes from December but up 13.5 million tonnes from 651.76 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 125.64 million tonnes, up 60,000 tonnes from December but down 10.11 million tonnes, or 7%, from 135.75 million tonnes in the prior year.

“Australia production is lowered 0.5 million tonnes as heavy late-December rains and flooding further increased crop losses in Queensland,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Australia exports are reduced 1.5 million tonnes as quality problems limit export opportunities.” The U.S.D.A. projected Australian 2010-11 wheat production at 25 million tonnes and exports at 13.5 million tonnes.

Estimated U.S. corn production in 2010 was reduced by 93 million bus, to 12,447 million bus, 2010-11 imports were increased by 5 million bus, to 20 million bus, and beginning stocks were unchanged at 1,708 million bus, resulting in total U.S. supply for 2010-11 projected at 14,175 million bus, down 87 million bus from December and down 599 million bus, or 4%, from 14,774 million bus in 2009-10.

U.S. 2010-11 feed and residual use was projected at 5,200 million bus, down 100 million bus, or 2%, from 5,300 million bus in December but up 60 million bus, or 1%, from 5,140 million bus in 2009-10. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,280 million bus (food and seed use unchanged from December at 1,380 million bus but use for ethanol up 100 million bus at 4,900 million bus), up 100 million bus, or 2%, from 6,180 million bus in December and up 341 million bus, or 6%, from 5,939 million bus in 2009-10. Total domestic use was projected at 11,480 million bus, unchanged from December but up 401 million bus, or 4%, from 11,079 million bus in 2009-10.

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 1,950 million bus, unchanged from December but down 37 million bus, or 2%, from 1,987 million bus in 2009-10.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $4.90@5.70 a bu in 2010-11, up 10c from December and compared with $3.55 a bu in 2009-10 and $4.06 in 2008-09.

U.S. 2010 soybean production was reduced by 46 million bus from December to 3,329 million bus, with beginning stocks unchanged at 151 million bus and imports raised 10 million bus, to 15 million bus, resulting in total 2010-11 supply projected at 3,495 million bus, down 41 million bus, or 1%, from December and down 17 million bus from 3,512 million bus in 2009-10.

Projected use of soybeans in 2010-11 was projected at 3,355 million bus, down 16 million bus from December and down 6 million bus from 3,361 million bus in 2009-10. Crushings were projected at 1,665 million bus, unchanged from December but down 87 million bus, or 5%, from 1,752 million bus in 2009-10. Exports were projected at a record 1,590 million bus, unchanged from December and up 89 million bus, or 6%, from the previous record of 1,501 million bus in 2009-10. Residual was projected at 22 million bus, down 7 million bus from December but up 4 million bus from 2009-10. Seed use was unchanged from December at 88 million bus, down 2 million bus from 2009-10.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $11.20@12.20 a bu, compared with $10.70@12.20 in December, $9.59 in 2009-10 and $9.97 in 2008-09.

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