U.S. 2012 wheat carryover down 1% from October

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 828 million bus, down 9 million bus, or 1%, from 837 million bus forecast in October and down 34 million bus, or 4%, from 862 million bus in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Nov. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The projected U.S.D.A. 2012 wheat carryover number was above the average trade expectation of 819 million bus.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 843 million bus, down 23 million bus, or 3%, from 866 million bus in October and down 285 million bus, or 25%, from 1,128 million bus in 2011.

The U.S.D.A. 2012 corn carryover number was above the average trade estimate near 801 million bus.
Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 195 million bus, up 35 million bus, or 22%, from 160 million bus in October but down 20 million bus, or 9%, from 215 million bus in 2011.

The U.S.D.A. soybean carryover number was above the average pre-report trade estimate of about 185 million bus.

“U.S. wheat supplies for 2011-12 are lowered 9 million bus based on updated production estimates for the states resurveyed following the Sept. 30 Small Grains report,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Adjustments to production in these states, where significant acreage remained unharvested in early September, lowers production estimates for hard red spring wheat and durum. An increase in white wheat production is partly offsetting.” U.S.D.A. 2011-12 all wheat use projections were unchanged from October.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 1,999 million bus for 2011, down 9 million bus from 2,008 million bus in October and down 208 million bus, or 9%, from 2,207 million bus in 2010. Wheat imports in 2011-12 were projected at 120 million bus, unchanged from October and up 24% from 97 million bus a year earlier.

Total wheat supply was projected at 2,982 million bus for 2011-12, down 8 million bus from October and down 297 million bus, or 9%, from 3,279 million bus in 2010-11, the U.S.D.A. said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2011-12 were projected at 975 million bus, unchanged from October and down 314 million bus, or 24%, from 1,289 million bus in 2010-11.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 at 940 million bus, unchanged from October but up 14 million bus, or 2%, from 926 million bus in 2010-11, and seed use at 78 million bus, unchanged from October but up 7 million bus from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 160 million bus, unchanged from October but up 28 million bus, or 21%, from 132 million bus in 2010-11. Total use was projected at 2,153 million bus, unchanged from October but down 264 million bus, or 11%, from 2,417 million bus in 2010-11.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 was projected to range from $7.05@7.75 a bus, down from $7.10@7.90 in October and compared with $5.70 in 2010-11 and $4.87 in 2009-10.

On a by-class basis, the U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2012, carryover of hard winter wheat at 318 million bus, up 20 million bus, or 7%, from 298 million bus in October but down 68 million bus, or 18%, from 386 million bus in 2011. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 244 million bus, unchanged from October and up 73 million bus, or 43%, from 171 million bus in 2011.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 129 million bus, down 28 million bus, or 18%, from 157 million bus in October and down 56 million bus, or 30%, from 185 million bus in 2011.

White wheat carryover was projected at 112 million bus in 2012, up 1 million bus from October and up 27 million bus, or 32%, from 85 million bus in 2011.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 26 million bus, down 2 million bus, or 7%, from 28 million bus in October and down 9 million bus, or 26%, from 35 million bus in 2011.

Global 2011-12 wheat production was projected at 683.3 million tonnes, up 2.1 million tonnes from October and up 36.6 million tonnes, or 5%, from 648.7 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 676.83 million tonnes, up 2.4 million tonnes from October and up 23.35 million tonnes, or 4%, from 653.48 million tonnes in 2010-11. World exports were projected at 137.3 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from October and up 5.93 million tonnes from 131.37 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 were projected at 202.6 million tonnes, up 230,000 tonnes from October and up 6.47 million tonnes, or 3%, from 196.13 million tonnes in 2010-11.

U.S. corn production in 2011 was projected at 12,310 million bus, down 1%, from 12,433 million bus in October and down 137 million bus, or 1%, from 12,447 million bus in 2010. Corn imports in 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bus, unchanged from October but down 13 million bus, or 46%, from 28 million bus in 2010-11. Total supply for 2011-12 was projected at 13,453 million bus, down 123 million bus, or 1%, from October and down 729 million bus, or 5%, from 14,182 million bus in 2010-11.

Projected feed and residual use in 2011-12 was projected at 4,600 million bus, down 100 million bus, or 2%, from October and down 192 million bus, or 4%, from 4,792 million bus in 2010-11. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,410 million bus, unchanged from October (including corn for ethanol at 5,000 million bus, unchanged, and food and seed use at 1,410 million bus, unchanged), and down 18 million bus from 6,428 million bus in 2010-11.

U.S. corn exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1,600 million bus, unchanged from October but down 235 million bus, or 13%, from 1,835 million bus the previous year.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $6.20@7.20 a bu, unchanged from October and compared with $5.18 in 2010-11 and $3.55 in 2009-10.

U.S. 2011 soybean production was projected at 3,046 million bus, down 14 million bus from 3,060 million bus in October and down 283 million bus, or 9%, from 3,329 million bus in 2010. Imports for 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bus, unchanged from October but up 1 million bus from a year earlier. Total supply in 2011-12 was projected at 3,275 million bus, down 15 million bus from 3,290 million bus in October and down 220 million bus, or 6%, from 3,495 million bus in 2010-11.

Total use of soybeans in 2011-12 was projected at 3,080 million bus, down 50 million bus, or 2%, from 3,130 million bus in October and down 200 million bus, or 6%, from 3,280 million bus in 2010-11. Crushings were projected at 1,635 million bus, unchanged from October and down 13 million bus from 1,648 million bus in 2010-11. Exports were projected at 1,325 million bus, down 50 million bus, or 4%, from 1,375 million bus in October and down 176 million bus, or 12%, from 1,501 million bus in 2010-11. Residual was unchanged from October at 32 million bus, and seed use was unchanged at 88 million bus.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $11.60@13.60 a bu in 2011-12, down 55c from $12.15@14.15 a bus in October and compared with $11.30 in 2010-11 and $9.59 in 2009-10.

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