U.S. 2012 wheat carryover reduced 2% from May

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — Carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2012, was forecast at 687 million bus, down 15 million bus, or 2%, from the initial projection in May of 702 million bus and down 122 million bus, or 15%, from a lower revised 809 million bus in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Estimates for 2010-11 were revised from May with imports reduced 10 million bus, to 100 million bus, and exports raised 20 million bus, to 2,475 million bus, resulting in carryover on June 1, 2011, at 809 million bus, down 30 million bus, or 4%, from May and down 274 million bus, or 28%, from 976 million bus in 2010. Domestic use numbers were unchanged from May for both 2010-11 and 2011-12.

U.S.D.A. carryover numbers were above the average of trade expectations of 669 million bus for 2011-12 but were below the average of 842 million bus for 2010-11.

For 2011-12, total supply was projected at 2,977 million bus, down 15 million bus from May and down 307 million bus, or 9%, from 3,284 million bus last year. All wheat production in 2011 was projected at 2,058 million bus, up 15 million bus from May but down 150 million bus, or 7%, from 2,208 million bus in 2010.

“The winter wheat production forecast is raised 26 million bus with higher forecast yields for hard red winter, soft red winter and soft white winter wheat,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Partly offsetting is a projected 11-million-bu reduction for durum and other spring wheat production as seedings are projected 290,000 acres lower. Flooding and persistent wet soils have delayed planting in North Dakota and Montana well beyond the normal planting window.”

Total wheat use in 2011-12 was unchanged from May at 2,290 million bus, down 185 million bus, or 7%, from 2,475 million bus in 2010-11. Current year exports were projected at 1,050 million bus, down 245 million bus, or 19%, from 1,295 million bus in 2010-11. Domestic use was projected at 1,240 million bus, up 60 million bus from 2010-11, including food use at 945 million bus, up 15 million bus, seed use at 75 million bus, down 5 million bus, and feed and residual at 220 million bus, up 50 million bus.

“The 2011-12 season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at a record $7@8.40 per bu, up 20c on both ends of the range (from May, reflecting both tighter domestic supplies and higher expected corn prices,” the U.S.D.A. said. The 2010-11 average price was estimated at $5.70 a bu, up 5c from May and up 83c from $4.87 a bu in 2009-10.

Carryover estimates were revised for all 2010-11 wheat-by-class numbers. Hard red winter wheat carryover was projected at 330 million bus, up 5 million bus from May, soft red winter at 158 million bus, down 6 million bus, hard spring at 204 million bus, down 16 million bus, white wheat at 78 million bus, down 5 million bus, and durum at 39 million bus, down 8 million bus. Initial 2011-12 wheat-by-class projections will be released July 12.

World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 were projected at 184.26 million tonnes, up 3 million tonnes from May but down 2.86 million tonnes from 187.12 million tonnes estimated for 2010-11.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 695 million bus, down 205 million bus, or 23%, from 900 million bus in May and down 35 million bus, or 5%, from 730 million bus in 2011. The U.S.D.A. number for 2012 was below the average trade expectation of 800 million bus, while the 2011 number was above the average of 715 million bus.

A decrease in projected use during 2011-12 was more than offset by a decrease in 2011 corn production.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2011 U.S. corn production at a record high 13,200 million bus, up 6% from 12,447 million bus in 2010 but down 305 million bus projected in May. Planted area in 2011 was projected at 90.7 million acres, down 1.5 million from May, with harvested area projected at 83.2 million acres, down 1.9 million from May.

“Planting delays through early June in the eastern Corn Belt and northern Plains are expected to reduce planted area, more than offsetting likely gains in the western Corn Belt and central Plains where planting was ahead of normal by mid-May,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Harvested area is lowered 1.9 million acres, to 83.2 million with the additional 400,000-acre reduction reflecting early information about May flooding in the lower Ohio and Mississippi River valleys and June flooding along the Missouri River valley.”

The U.S.D.A. projected total U.S. corn supply in 2011-12 at 13,950 million bus, down 305 million bus from May and down 230 million bus from 14,180 million bus in 2010-11. Corn imports were unchanged from May at 20 million bus, down 5 million bus from a year earlier.

Feed and residual use of corn in 2011-12 was projected at 5,000 million bus, down 100 million bus from May and down 150 million from 2010-11. Projected food, seed and industrial use, which includes corn used to produce ethanol, was unchanged from May at 6,455 million bus, up 55 million bus from 2010-11.

Corn exports were projected at 1,800 million bus, unchanged from May but down 100 million bus from 2010-11.

The average price paid to farmers for corn in 2011-12 was projected at a record high $6@7 a bu, up 50c on both ends of the range from May and compared with $5.20@5.50 a bu in 2010-11 and $3.55 a bu in 2009-10.
World corn ending stocks were projected at 111.89 million tonnes for 2011-12, down 17.25 million bus, or 13%, from 129.14 million tonnes in May and down 5.55 million tonnes, or 5%, from 117.44 million tonnes in 2010-11.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 190 million bus, up 30 million bus, or 19%, from 160 million bus in May and up 10 million bus from an upwardly revised 180 million bus in the current year. The U.S.D.A. carryover numbers were above average trade expectations of 165 million bus for 2012 and 173 million bus for 2011.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2011 U.S. soybean production at 3,285 million bus, unchanged from May and down 1% from 3,329 million bus in 2010, planted area at 76.6 million acres and harvested area at 75.7 million acres, both unchanged from May but down 1% from 2010-11, and yield at 43.4 bus an acre, also unchanged from May. Total supply was projected at 3,480 million bus, up 10 million bus from May based on larger beginning stocks. Total use was projected at 3,290 million bus, down 20 million bus from May based on projected exports in 2011-12 of 1,520 million bus, down 20 million bus from 1,540 million bus in May and in 2010-11. Domestic crush was unchanged from May at 1,655 million bus in 2011-12.

The average price of soybeans in 2011-12 was projected to range from $13@15 a bu, up $1 on both ends of the range from May and compared with $11.40 this year and $9.59 in 2009-10.

World soybean ending stocks were projected at 61.59 million tonnes for 2011-12, down 260,000 tonnes, or 3%, from May and down 2.94 million tonnes from 64.53 million tonnes in 2010-11.

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