U.S. 2012 wheat carryover up slightly from July

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 671 million bus, up 1 million bus from 670 million bus forecast in July but down 190 million bus, or 22%, from 861 million bus in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Aug. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The projected U.S.D.A. 2012 wheat carryover was as expected by the trade.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 714 million bus, down 156 million bus, or 18%, from 870 million bus in July and down 226 million bus, or 24%, from an upwardly revised 940 million bus in 2011.

The U.S.D.A. 2012 corn carryover number was below average trade expectations near 745 million bus.
Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 155 million bus, down 20 million bus, or 11%, from 175 million bus in July and down 75 million bus, or 33%, from an upwardly revised 230 million bus estimated for this year.

The U.S.D.A. soybean carryover number was below the average pre-report trade estimate of about 170 million bus.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,077 million bus for 2011, down 29 million bus, or 1%, from 2,106 million bus in July and down 131 million bus, or 6%, from 2,208 million bus in 2010. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,037 million bus for 2011-12, down 30 million bus, or 1%, from July and down 244 million bus, or 7%, from 3,281 million bus in 2010-11, the U.S.D.A. said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2011-12 were projected at 1,100 million bus, down 50 million bus, or 4%, from July and down 189 million bus, or 15%, from 1,289 million bus in 2010-11.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 at 945 million bus, unchanged from July but up 15 million bus, or 2%, from 930 million bus in 2010-11, and seed use at 82 million bus, also unchanged from July but up 9 million bus from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 240 million bus, up 20 million bus, or 9%, from 220 million bus in July but up 111 million bus, or 86%, from 129 million bus in 2010-11. Total use was projected at 2,367 million bus, down 30 million bus, or 1%, from 2,397 million bus in July and down 53 million bus, or 2%, from 2,420 million bus in 2010-11.

“Exports are projected down 50 million bus (for 2011-12) with increased competition, particularly from FSU-12 countries, where production prospects are raised,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Projected feed and residual use is raised 20 million bus, reflecting a continuation of competitive prices for feed-quality wheat and lower projected corn supplies.”

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 was projected to range from $7@8.20 a bus, up from $6.60@8 in July and compared with $5.70 in 2010-11.

On a by-class basis, the U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2012, carryover of hard winter wheat at 222 million bus, up 23 million bus, or 12%, from 199 million bus in July but down 164 million bus, or 42%, from 386 million bus in 2011. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 197 million bus, up 14 million bus, or 8%, from 183 million bus in July and up 27 million bus, or 16%, from 170 million bus in 2011.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 143 million bus, down 30 million bus, or 17%, from 173 million bus in July and down 42 million bus, or 23%, from 185 million bus in 2011.

White wheat carryover was projected at 96 million bus in 2012, down 6 million bus from July but up 11 million bus, or 13%, from 85 million bus in 2011.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 13 million bus, down 1 million bus from July and down 22 million bus, or 63%, from 35 million bus in 2011.

Global 2011-12 wheat production was projected at 672.09 million tonnes, up 9.67 million tonnes, or 1%, from July and up 24.23 million tonnes, or 4%, from 648.19 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 674.96 million tonnes, up 5.76 million tonnes from July and up 19.65 million tonnes, or 3%, from 655.31 million tonnes in 2010-11. World exports were projected at 131.33 million tonnes, up 1.29 million tonnes from July and up 1.28 million tonnes from 130.05 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 were projected at 188.87 million tonnes, up 6.68 million tonnes, or 4%, from July but down 2.87 million tonnes, or 1%, from 191.74 million tonnes in 2010-11.

“World wheat production for 2011-12 is raised 9.7 million tonnes with increases in FSU-12, India, China and EU-27 more than offsetting a reduction in Argentina,” the U.S.D.A. said. Production in Russia and Ukraine was raised 3 million tonnes each, Kazakhstan 1 million, India 1.9 million, China 1.5 million and EU-27 1.4 million, while Argentina was down 1.5 million.

U.S. corn production in 2011, the first survey-based estimate of the year, was projected at 12,914 million bus, down 556 million bus, or 4%, from July but up 467 million bus, or 4%, from 12,447 million bus in 2010. Total supply for 2011-12 was projected at 13,874 million bus, down 496 million bus, or 3%, from July and down 311 million bus, or 2%, from 14,185 million bus in 2010-11.

Projected feed and residual use in 2011-12 was projected at 4,900 million bus, down 150 million bus from 5,050 million bus in July and down 100 million bus from 5,000 million bus in 2010-11. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,510 million bus, down 40 million bus from July (including corn for ethanol at 5,100 million bus, down 50 million bus, and food and seed use at 1,410 million bus, up 10 million bus from July), but up 90 million bus from 6,420 million bus in 2010-11.

U.S. corn exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1,750 million bus, down 150 million bus, or 8%, from 1,900 million bus in July and down 75 million bus, or 4%, from 1,825 million bus the previous year.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $6.20@7.20 a bu, up 70c from July and compared with $5.20@5.30 in 2010-11.

U.S. 2011 soybean production, based on the first survey-based estimate of the year, was projected at 3,056 million bus, down 169 million bus, or 5%, from 3,225 million bus in July and down 273 million bus, or 8%, from 3,329 million bus in 2010. Total supply in 2011-12 was projected at 3,301 million bus, down 139 million bus, or 4%, from 3,440 million bus in July and down 194 million bus, or 6%, from 3,495 million bus in 2010-11.

Total use of soybeans in 2011-12 was projected at 3,146 million bus, down 118 million bus, or 4%, from 3,246 million bus in July and down 119 million bus, or 4%, from 3,265 million bus in 2010-11. Crushings were projected at 1,635 million bus, down 20 million bus from July and down 10 million bus from 1,645 million bus in 2010-11. Exports were projected at 1,400 million bus, down 95 million bus, or 6%, from 1,495 million bus in both July and 2010-11. Residual was lowered 4 million bus from July to 21 million bus, and seed use was unchanged from July at 90 million bus.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $12.50@14.50 a bus, up 50c from July and compared with $11.35 this year.

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