U.S. 2012 wheat carryover down 1% from December

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 870 million bus, down 8 million bus, or 1%, from 878 million bus forecast in December but up 8 million bus from 862 million bus in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Jan. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. The decrease was the result of projected increased exports more than offsetting reduced domestic use in 2011-12.

The projected U.S.D.A. 2012 wheat carryover number was above the average trade expectation of 831 million bus.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 846 million bus, down 2 million bus from December and down 282 million bus, or 25%, from 1,128 million bus in 2011. The U.S.D.A. 2012 corn carryover number was well above the average trade estimate near 753 million bus.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 275 million bus, up 45 million bus, or 20%, from 230 million bus in December and up 60 million bus, or 28%, from 215 million bus in 2011. The U.S.D.A. soybean carryover number also was well above the average pre-report trade estimate of 227 million bus.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 1,999 million bus for 2011, unchanged from the December projection and down 208 million bus, or 9%, from 2,207 million bus in 2010. Wheat imports in 2011-12 were projected at 120 million bus, unchanged from December but up 23 million bus, or 24%, from 97 million bus a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 2,982 million bus for 2011-12, also unchanged from December but down 297 million bus, or 9%, from 3,279 million bus in 2010-11, the U.S.D.A. said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2011-12 were projected at 950 million bus, up 25 million bus, or 3%, from 925 million bus in December but down 339 million bus, or 26%, from 1,289 million bus in 2010-11.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 at 935 million bus, down 5 million bus from December but up 9 million bus from 926 million bus in 2010-11, and seed use at 82 million bus, up 4 million bus from December and up 11 million bus from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 145 million bus, down 15 million bus, or 9%, from 160 million bus in December but up 13 million bus, or 10%, from 132 million bus in 2010-11. Total use was projected at 2,112 million bus, up 9 million bus from December but down 305 million bus, or 13%, from 2,417 million bus in 2010-11.

“Food use is projected 5 million bus lower based on flour production data recently reported by the North American Millers’ Association for July-September 2011,” the U.S.D.A. said.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 was projected to range from $6.95@7.45 a bu, compared with $7.05@7.55 projected in December, $5.70 in 2010-11 and $4.87 in 2009-10.

On a by-class basis, increased export projections for hard red winter, white and soft red winter more than offset a reduction for hard red spring.

The U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2012, carryover of hard winter wheat at 338 million bus, down 5 million bus, or 1%, from 343 million bus in December and down 48 million bus, or 12%, from 386 million bus in 2011. Hard winter exports in 2011-12 were projected at 390 million bus, up 15 million bus, or 4%, from 375 million bus the prior month.

Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 258 million bus, down 1 million bus from December but up 87 million bus, or 50%, from 171 million bus in 2011. Soft red exports in 2011-12 were projected at 115 million bus, up 5 million bus from December.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 139 million bus, up 10 million bus, or 8%, from December but down 46 million bus, or 25%, from 185 million bus in 2011. Hard spring exports in 2011-12 were forecast at 240 million bus, down 10 million bus, or 4%, from 250 million bus in December.

White wheat carryover was projected at 112 million bus in 2012, down 10 million bus, or 8%, from 122 million bus in December but up 27 million bus, or 32%, from 85 million bus in 2011. White wheat exports in 2011-12 were projected at 185 million bus, up 10 million bus, or 6%, from 170 million bus in December.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 23 million bus, down 3 million bus from December and down 12 million bus, or 34%, from 35 million bus in 2011.

Global 2011-12 wheat production was projected at a record 691.5 million tonnes, up 2.53 million tonnes from December, up 39.82 million tonnes, or 6%, from 651.68 million tonnes the prior year and 6.06 million tonnes above the previous record of 685.44 million tonnes in 2009-10, the U.S.D.A. said. Global wheat use was projected at 681.43 million tonnes, up 1.23 million tonnes from December and up 27.56 million tonnes, or 4%, from 653.87 million tonnes in 2010-11. World exports were projected at 139.37 million tonnes, up 680,000 tonnes from December and up 7.55 million tonnes from 131.82 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 were projected at 210.02 million tonnes, up 1.5 million tonnes from December and up 10.08 million tonnes, or 5%, from 199.94 million tonnes in 2010-11, the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S. corn production in 2011 was projected at 12,358 million bus, up 48 million bus from December but down 89 million bus, or 1%, from 12,447 million bus in 2010. Corn imports in 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bus, unchanged from December but down 13 million bus from 28 million bus in 2010-11. Total supply for 2011-12 was projected at 13,501 million bus, up 48 million bus from December but down 681 million bus, or 5%, from 14,182 million bus in 2010-11.

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,405 million bus in 2011-12, unchanged from December (including corn for ethanol at 5,000 million bus, unchanged, and food and seed use at 1,405 million bus, unchanged), but down 23 million bus from 6,428 million bus in 2010-11.

Feed and residual use in 2011-12 was projected at 4,600 million bus, unchanged from December but down 193 million bus, or 4%, from 4,793 million bus in 2010-11.

U.S. corn exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1,650 million bus, up 50 million bus from December but down 185 million bus, or 10%, from 1,835 million bus the previous year.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $5.70@6.70 a bu, down 20c from $5.90@6.90 a bu in December and compared with $5.18 in 2010-11 and $3.55 in 2009-10.

U.S. 2011 soybean production was projected at 3,056 million bus, up 10 million bus from December but down 273 million bus, or 8%, from 3,329 million bus in 2010. Imports for 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bus, unchanged from December but up 1 million bus from a year earlier. Total supply in 2011-12 was projected at 3,286 million bus, up 11 million bus from December but down 209 million bus, or 6%, from 3,495 million bus in 2010-11.

Total use of soybeans in 2011-12 was projected at 3,011 million bus, down 34 million bus, or 1%, from 3,045 million bus in December and down 269 million bus, or 8%, from 3,280 million bus in 2010-11. Crushings were projected at 1,615 million bus, down 10 million bus from December and down 33 million bus, or 2%, from 1,648 million bus in 2010-11. Exports were projected at 1,275 million bus, down 25 million bus, or 2%, from 1,300 million bus in December and down 226 million bus, or 15%, from 1,501 million bus in 2010-11. Residual was unchanged from December at 32 million bus, and seed use was unchanged at 88 million bus.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $10.95@12.45 a bu in 2011-12, compared with $10.70@12.70 a bus in December, $11.30 in 2010-11 and $9.59 in 2009-10.

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