U.S. wheat seedings, carryover above expectations

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its Winter Wheat Seedings, Crop Production, Grain Stocks and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports this morning with several key numbers coming in above expectations. Check back later this morning for the full stories.

U.S. winter wheat seeded in 2011 for harvest in 2012 was estimated at 41,947,000 acres, up 1,301,000 acres, or 3%, from 40,646,000 acres seeded for harvest in 2011, the U.S.D.A. said in its annual Winter Wheat Seedings report. The U.S.D.A. number was above the average trade estimate near 41 million acres.

Wheat stored in all positions on Dec. 1, 2011, totaled 1,656,423,000 bus, down 14% from 1,932,946,000 bus on Dec. 1, 2010, the U.S.D.A. said in its quarterly Grain Stocks report. Dec. 1 corn stocks were down 4% from a year ago at 9,641,903,000 bus, and soybean stocks were up 4% at 2,365,784,000 bus. The U.S.D.A. wheat number was below the average trade expectation of 1,679 million bus, but U.S.D.A. numbers were above average trade estimates for corn of 9,400 million bus and for soybeans of 2,312 million bus.

U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 870 million bus, down 8 million bus from 878 million bus forecast in December but up 8 million bus from 862 million bus in 2011, the U.S.D.A. said in its Jan. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. The projected U.S.D.A. 2012 wheat carryover number was above the average trade expectation of 831 million bus.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 846 million bus, down 2 million bus from 848 million bus in December and down 282 million bus, or 25%, from 1,128 million bus in 2011. The U.S.D.A. 2012 corn carryover number was well above the average trade estimate near 753 million bus.
Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 275 million bus, up 45 million bus, or 20%, from 230 million bus in December and up 60 million bus, or 28%, from 215 million bus in 2011.

The U.S.D.A. soybean carryover number also was well above the average pre-report trade estimate of 227 million bus.

U.S. 2011 corn production was estimated at 12,358,412,000 bus, up slightly from 12,309,936,000 bus forecast in November and down 1% from 12,446,865,000 bus in 2010, the U.S.D.A. said in its annual Crop Production 2011 Summary. Soybean production was forecast at 3,056,032,000 bus, also up slightly from 3,045,558,000 bus in November but down 8% from 3,329,181,000 bus last year, the U.S.D.A. said.

Both U.S.D.A. production numbers were above the average of pre-report trade estimates of 12,280 million bus for corn and 3,042 million bus for soybeans.

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