U.S. 2013 wheat carryover 4% below 2012

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — In the first forecast for the 2012-13 marketing year, the carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2013, was projected at 735 million bus, down 33 million bus, or 4%, from the current year estimate of 768 million bus, which was reduced 25 million bus, or 3%, from 793 million bus forecast in April, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

All 2011-12 all wheat numbers were unchanged from April except for estimated exports, which were raised 25 million bus, to 1,025 million bus, resulting in a like reduction in carryover. The average price, which was estimated at a record high $7.25 a bu, compared with a range of $7.20@7.40 in April, $5.70 in 2010-11 and $4.87 in 2009-10.

The initial all wheat average price for 2012-13 was projected at $5.50@6.70 a bu.

The U.S.D.A. 2012-13 all wheat carryover number of 735 million bus was below the average trade expectation near 805 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2012 U.S. all wheat production at 2,245 million bus, up 12% from 1,999 million bus in 2011, based on harvested area projected at 49.2 million acres, up about 8% from 45.7 million acres, and yield at 45.7 bus an acre, up 5% from 43.7 bus an acre last year. U.S. wheat imports in 2012-13 were projected at 120 million bus, unchanged from the current year. Total supply was projected at 3,133 million bus, up 151 million bus, or 5%, from 2,982 million bus in 2011-12.

Wheat used for food in 2012-13 was projected at 945 million bus, up 2% from 930 million bus in 2011-12, and seed use at 73 million bus, down 8% from 79 million bus. Feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 230 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 28%, from 180 million bus in 2011-12. Total 2012-13 domestic use was projected at 1,248 million bus, up 59 million bus, or 5%, from 1,189 million bus in the current year.

Exports were projected at 1,150 million bus in 2012-13, up 125 million bus, or 12%, from 1,025 million bus this year. Total use was projected at 2,398 million bus, up 184 million bus, or 8%, from 2,214 million bus in 2011-12.

“Larger supplies, more competitive prices and an early expected start to this year’s harvest open the door to higher demand for U.S. wheat during the coming months,” the U.S.D.A. said.

Only minor changes were made in 2011-12 wheat-by-class numbers. Unchanged from April were 2012 carryover for hard spring wheat at 143 million bus, white wheat at 72 million bus and durum at 17 million bus. Initial 2012-13 by-class projections will be released in July.

Carryover of hard winter wheat on June 1, 2012, was estimated at 336 million bus, down 15 million bus from the April forecast based on a like increase in projected 2011-12 exports, now estimated at 395 million bus. Total use was increased 15 million bus from April to 831 million bus in 2011-12.

Soft red winter wheat exports in 2011-12 were projected at 155 million bus, up 10 million bus from April, resulting in a like increase in total use, now estimated at 461 million bus, and a 10-million-bu reduction in carryover at 201 million bus.

World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 initially were projected at 188.13 million tonnes, down 8.9 million tonnes, or 5%, from 197.03 million tonnes estimated for the current year. World wheat production for the next marketing year was projected at 677.56 million tonnes, down 17.08 million tonnes, or 2%, from 694.64 million tonnes in 2011-12. Global wheat consumption was projected at 686.47 million tonnes in 2012-13, down 7.88 million tonnes, or 1%, from 694.35 million tonnes this year. World wheat exports were projected at 137.02 million tonnes, down 9.72 million tonnes, or 7%, from 146.74 million tonnes in 2011-12.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 1,881 million bus, up 1,030 million bus, or 121%, from an upwardly revised 851 million bus in 2012.

The U.S.D.A. 2012-13 U.S. corn carryover projection was above the trade average that was near 1,704 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2012 U.S. corn production at a record high 14,790 million bus, up 20% from 2011 based on planted area of 95.9 million acres and harvested area of 89.1 million acres, up 4% and 6%, respectively, and yield of 166 bus an acre, up 13% from 147.2 bus in 2011. The average price of corn was projected to range from $4.20@5 a bu in 2012-13, down from $5.95@6.25 a bu forecast for the current year and $5.18 a bu in 2010-11.

U.S. total corn supply in 2012-13 was projected at 15,656 million bus, up 16% from 13,506 million bus in 2011-12, based on beginning stocks of 851 million bus, imports of 15 million bus (down 5 million bus from 2011-12) and record 2012 production of 14,790 million bus.

Feed and residual use for 2012-13 was projected at 5,450 million bus, up 900 million bus, or 20%, from a downwardly revised 4,550 million bus in 2011-12. Food, seed and industrial use for next year was projected at 6,425 million bus, up 20 million bus from 6,405 million bus in 2011-12, based on corn use for ethanol projected at 5,000 million bus, unchanged from 2011-12, and food, seed and industrial at 1,425 million bus, up 20 million bus from the current year. Total domestic use was projected at 11,875 million bus in 2012-13, up 920 million bus from a downwardly revised 10,955 million bus in 2011-12.

Exports were projected at 1,900 million bus in 2012-13, up 200 million bus, or 12%, from 1,700 million bus in 2011-12. Total use in 2012-13 was projected at 13,775 million bus, up 1,120 million bus, or 9%, from 12,655 million bus in the current year, with the latter revised down 50 million bus from April.
World corn ending stocks were projected at 152.34 million tonnes for 2012-13, up 24.78 million tonnes, or 19%, from 127.56 million tonnes in 2011-12.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 145 million bus, down 65 million bus, or 31%, from a downwardly revised 210 million bus in 2012.

The 2012-13 U.S.D.A. soybean carryover number was below the average trade of expectation near 170 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2012 U.S. soybean production at 3,205 million bus, up 5% from 3,056 million bus in 2011, planted area at 73.9 million acres and harvested area at 73 million acres, both down 1%, and yield at 43.9 bus an acre, up 6% from 41.5 bus an acre in 2011. The average price of soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $12@14 a bu, compared with $12.35 this year and $11.30 in 2010-11.

U.S. total soybean supply in 2012-13 was projected at 3,430 million bus, up 144 million bus, or 4%, from an unchanged-from-April 3,286 million bus in 2011-12, and based on beginning stocks of 210 million bus, production of 3,205 million bus and imports of 15 million bus.

Domestic soybean crush in 2012-13 was projected at 1,655 million bus, up 10 million bus from 1,645 million bus in 2011-12, with the latter revised up 15 million bus from 1,630 million bus forecast in April. Exports in 2012-13 were projected at 1,505 million bus, up 190 million bus, or 14%, from 1,315 million bus in 2011-12, with the latter revised up 25 million bus from April. Seed use in 2012-13 was projected at 89 million bus, up 3 million bus from the current year, residual at 30 million bus, up 6 million bus, and total use at 3,285 million bus, up 209 million bus from 3,076 million bus in 2011-12, with the latter revised up 40 million bus from April.

World soybean ending stocks were projected at 58.07 million tonnes for 2012-13, up 4.83 million tonnes, or 9%, from 53.24 million tonnes in 2011-12.

U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2013, was projected at 27 million cwts, down 7 million cwts, or 21%, from 34 million cwts this year. U.S. rice production in 2012 was projected at 183 million cwts, down 2 million cwts from 2011. The average farm price was projected to range from $15.30@16.30 a cwt in 2012-13 compared with $13.90@14.30 a cwt in 2011-12 and $12.70 a cwt in 2010-11.

Global rice production, total supply and use were projected record high for 2012-13. World rice production was projected at a record 466.45 million tonnes, up 3.14 million tonnes from 463.31 million tonnes in 2011-12. Total use was projected at a record 465.71 million tonnes, up 7.88 million tonnes from 457.85 million tonnes in the current year. World rice ending stocks were projected at 104.88 million tonnes in 2012-13, up 730,000 tonnes from 104.15 million tonnes in 2011-12.

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