Wheat crop forecast in line with expectations

by Laura Lloyd
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WASHINGTON — U.S. 2012 all wheat production was forecast at 2,224,075,000 bus, up 11% from 1,999,347,000 bus harvested in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its July Crop Production report this morning.

The U.S.D.A. forecast production of winter wheat at 1,670,346,000 bus, down 13,321,000 bus, or 1%, from its June forecast but up 176,669,000 bus, or 12%, from 1,493,677,000 bus in 2011.

Production of spring wheat other than durum in 2012 was forecast at 471,769,000, up 4% from 455,188,000 bus in 2011. Durum output was forecast at 81,960,000 bus, up 62% from 50,482,000 bus last year. It was the U.S.D.A.’s first survey-based estimates for other spring wheat, durum and all wheat for the current year.

The U.S.D.A. all wheat number was below the average trade expectation of 2,253 million bus and the winter wheat number was near the trade average of 1,668 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. forecast winter wheat yield at 47.7 bus per acre based on conditions as of July 1, up 0.4 bus from 47.3 bus in June and up 1.5 bus from 46.2 bus in 2011. Harvested area was forecast at 35 million acres, unchanged from the June Acreage report but up 8% from a year ago.

Production of hard red winter wheat was forecast at 1,009,656,000 bus, down 1% from June but up 29% from 780,089,000 bus in 2011. Soft red winter wheat production was forecast at 429,027,000 bus, up slightly from June but down 6% from 457,535,000 bus last year. White winter wheat was forecast at 231,663,000 bus, up slightly from last month and down 10% from 256,053,000 bus in 2011. Soft white winter wheat production was forecast at 217,616,000 bus, up slightly from June and down 11% from 243,685,000 bus last year. Hard white winter was forecast at 14,047,000 bus, unchanged from June and up 13% from 12,368,000 bus harvested in 2011.

The U.S.D.A. forecast spring wheat other than durum yield at 40.4 bus an acre, up 2.7 bus from 37.7 bus an acre in 2011. Harvested area was forecast at 11.7 million acres, unchanged from the June Acreage report but down 3% from 2011.

Production of hard red spring wheat was forecast at 435,485,000 bus, up 10% from 397,689,000 bus in 2011.

Durum yield was forecast at 38.6 bus an acre, up 0.1 bus from 38.5 bus an acre in 2011. Harvested area was forecast at 2.12 million acres, unchanged from the June Acreage report but up 62% from a year earlier.

All wheat yield was forecast at 45.6 bus an acre, up 1.9 bus from 43.7 bus an acre in 2011. All wheat harvested area was forecast at 48.8 million acres, up 7% from 45.7 million acres in 2011.

Oats production in 2012 was forecast at 65,276,000 bus, up 22% from the record low of 53,649,000 bus in 2011, the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S. 2012 barley production was forecast at 216,690,000 bus, up 39% from 155,780,000 bus last year.

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