U.S. carryover of wheat, soybeans reduced from Feb.

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Agriculture today projected carryover of wheat on June 1, 2008, at 242 million bus, down 30 million bus, or 11%, from its February projection, down 214 million bus, or 47%, from 2007 and the smallest carryover since 1948.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2008, was projected at 140 million bus, down 20 million bus, or 13%, from February, down 434 million bus, or 76%, from 2007 and the lowest since 2004. Projected carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2008, was 1,438 million bus, unchanged from February and up 134 million bus, or 10%, from 2007.

The U.S.D.A. projected the wheat ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2007-08 at 10%, the lowest since 1946-47. Projected wheat supply in 2007-08 was unchanged from February at 2,613 million bus. Domestic use of wheat in 2007-08 was projected at 1,146 million bus, up 5 million bus from February and up 6 million bus from the previous year. Food use was projected at 950 million bus, up 5 million bus from February and matching record food use in 2000-01. The increase in food use was in spring wheat.

Seed use of wheat was projected at 86 million bus, unchanged from February but up 5 million bus from the previous year. Feed and residual use was projected at 110 million bus, unchanged from February and down 15 million bus from 2006-07. Wheat exports were projected at 1,225 million bus, up 25 million bus from February, up 316 million bus, or 35%, from 2006-07 and the highest outgo since 1,241 million bus in 1995-96.

Projected average farm price of wheat in 2007-08 was narrowed 5c at each end of the range to a record $6.50@6.80 a bu. In comparison, average price was $4.26 in 2006-07 and $3.42 in 2005-06. The previous record price was $4.55 a bu in 1995-96.

The U.S.D.A. made no changes in projected corn supply and use data from February. Unchanged were total supply for 2007-08 at 14,393 million bus, exports at 2,450 million bus and domestic use at 10,505 million bus, including 3,200 million bus for ethanol. The average farm price of corn in 2007-08 was projected at $3.75@4.25 a bu, unchanged from February and compared with $3.04 a bu in 2006-07 and $2 in 2005-06.

The reduction in projected carryover of U.S. soybeans was the result in a projected increase from February of 20 million bus in 2007-08 exports, to 1,025 million bus, which compared with 1,118 million bus a year earlier. Unchanged from February were total soybean supply at 3,165 million bus, crush at 1,835 million bus, seed at 79 million bus and residual at 79 million bus. The average farm price of soybeans in 2007-08 was projected at $10@10.80 a bu, unchanged from February and compared with $6.43 in 2006-07 and $5.66 in 2005-06.

The carryover of soybean oil at Oct. 1, 2008, was projected at 2,837 million lbs, up 335 million lbs from February but down 67 million lbs from 2007. Production of soybean oil for 2007-08 was projected at 21,195 million lbs, up 185 million lbs from February "due to an increase in the oil extraction rate," the U.S.D.A. said.

Domestic use of soybean oil for methyl ester (biodiesel) was projected at 2,800 million lbs, down 600 million lbs from February but 4 million lbs above 2006-07 use. Soybean oil exports were projected at 2,400 million lbs, up 450 million lbs from February and up 512 million lbs from a year ago. The average price of soybean oil was projected to range from 53@57c a lb, up from 47.5@51.5c in February and compared with 31.02c in 2006-07 and 23.41c in 2005-06.

Projected carryover of soybean meal on Oct. 1, 2008, was unchanged from February at 300,000 tons. The average price was raised to $320@350 a ton from $305@335 in February, $205.44 in 2006-07 and $174.17 in 2005-06.

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