U.S. wheat carryover unchanged from August

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected slightly larger 2010 U.S. carryover stocks of corn and soybeans but left wheat stocks unchanged from August in its Sept. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Projected carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2010, was 743 million bus, unchanged from the August projection but up 76 million bus, or 11%, from 667 million bus in 2009.

Projected corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was 1,635 million bus, up 14 million bus, or about 1%, from 1,621 million bus projected in August but down 60 million bus, or 4%, from 1,695 million bus in 2009, which was reduced by 25 million bus, or 1%, from August, the U.S.D.A. said.

Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was projected at 220 million bus, up 10 million bus, or 5%, from 210 million bus projected in August and up 110 million bus, or 100%, from 110 million bus in 2009, the U.S.D.A. said.

The projected 2010 U.S.D.A. wheat carryover was below the average of pre-report trade estimates for wheat, corn and soybeans.

All U.S.D.A. September U.S. wheat projections for 2009-10 and estimates for 2008-09 were unchanged from August, except for average price. U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,184 million bus for 2009, down 316 million bus, or 13%, from 2,500 million bus in 2008. Total wheat supply in 2009-10 was projected at 2,961 million bus, up 29 million bus, or 1%, from 2,932 million bus last year. Exports of U.S. wheat for 2009-10 were projected at 950 million bus, but down 65 million bus, or 6%, from 1,015 million bus in 2008-09. The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2009-10 at 955 million bus, up 30 million bus, or 3%, from 925 million bus in 2008-09. Feed and residual use was projected at 235 million bus, down 11 million bus from 246 million bus last year. Seed use was projected at 78 million bus, down 1 million bus from 2008-09.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2009-10 was projected to range from $4.70@5.50 a bu, down 10c on the top end of the range from August, and compared with $6.78 in 2008-09 and $6.48 in 2007-08.

Global 2009-10 wheat production was projected at 663.72 million tonnes, up 4.43 million tonnes from August but down 18.53 million tonnes, or 3%, from record large outturn of 682.4 million tonnes in 2008-09. World wheat ending stocks were projected at 186.61 million tonnes in 2009-10, up 3.05 million tonnes from August and up 17.62 million tonnes, or 10%, from 168.99 million tonnes in 2008-09.

U.S. corn production in 2009 was projected at 12,954.5 million bus, up 2% from 12,761 million bus in August, up 7% from 12,101 million bus in 2008, and the second largest crop on record if realized. Total corn supply in 2009-10 was projected at a record high 14,660 million bus, up 1% from 14,496 million bus in August and up 7% from 13,740 million bus in 2008-09. Feed and residual use of corn was projected at 5,350 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 1%, from 5,300 million bus in August and up 100 million bus, or 2%, from 5,250 million bus in 2008-09. Food and seed use was unchanged from August at 1,275 million bus and up 5 million bus from 1,270 million bus last year. Use of corn for ethanol was projected at 4,200 million bus in 2009-10, unchanged from August but up 525 million bus, or 14%, from 3,675 million bus in 2008-09, which was increased 25 million bus from August. U.S. corn exports in 2009-10 were projected at 2,200 million bus, up 100 million bus, or 5%, from August and up 350 million bus, or 19%, from 2008-09.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $3.05@3.65 a bu in 2009-10, down from $3.10@3.90 in August compared with $4.08 in 2008-09 and $4.20 in 2007-08.

World corn production in 2009-10 was projected at 794.06 million tonnes, down 2.27 million tonnes from 796.33 million tonnes in August but up 4.63 million tonnes from 789.43 million tonnes in 2008-09. Global corn ending stocks were projected at 139.12 million tonnes for 2009-10, down 2.37 million tonnes from 141.49 million tonnes in August and down 5.57 million tonnes, or 4%, from 144.69 million tonnes in 2008-09.

U.S. soybean production in 2009 was projected at a record high 3,245 million bus, up 1% from 3,199 million bus forecast in August and up 10% from 2,959 million bus in 2008. Total 2009-10 soybean supply was projected at 3,366 million bus, up 46 million bus, or 1%, from August and up 187 million bus, or 6%, from 3,179 million bus in 2008-09. Domestic crush was projected at 1,690 million bus, up 20 million bus from August and up 30 million bus from 2008-09. Seed use was unchanged from August at 94 million bus, down 2 million bus from 2008-09. U.S. soybean exports in 2009-10 were projected at 1,280 million bus, up 15 million bus from August and even with 2008-09, which also was raised 15 million bus.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $8.10@10.10 a bus in 2009-10, down 30c on each side of the range from August and compared with $10 in 2008-09 and $10.10 in 2007-08.

Global soybean production was projected at 243.94 million tonnes, up 1.87 million tonnes from 242.07 million tonnes in August and up 33.22 million tonnes, or 16%, from 210.72 million tonnes in 2008-09. Ending stocks were projected at 50.53 million tonnes in 2009-10, up 210,000 tonnes from 50.32 million tonnes in August and up 10.31 million tonnes, or 26%, from 40.22 million tonnes the previous year.

U.S. rice production was projected at 217.9 million cwts, up 6.7 million cwts from August and up 14.2 million cwts, or 7%, from 203.7 million cwts in 2008. Carryover of rice on Aug. 1, 2010, was projected at 43.9 million cwts, up 20 million cwts from August and up 13.5 million cwts from 2008-09. The average farm price of rice was projected to range from $13.65@14.65 a cwt, unchanged from August and compared with $16.80 a cwt in 2008-09 and $12.80 in 2007-08.

World rice production was projected at 433.51 million tonnes, up slightly from 433.46 million tonnes in August but down 11.34 million tonnes, or 3%, from 444.85 million tonnes in 2008-09. Ending stocks were projected at 84.86 million tonnes, up 820,000 tonnes from 84.04 million tonnes in August but down 4.46 million tonnes, or 5%, from 89.32 million tonnes in 2008-09.

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