U.S. wheat, corn carryover up from November

by FoodBusinessNews.net Staff
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Dec. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report raised U.S. 2009 carryover projections from November for wheat and corn and left soybeans unchanged but increased world numbers for all three commodities.

U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2009, was projected at 623 million bus, up 20 million bus, or 3%, from 603 million bus in November and up 317 million bus, or 104%, from 306 million bus in 2008.

Total U.S. wheat supply was projected at 2,915 million bus, up 10 million bus from November due to a 10-million bu increase in projected imports, to 110 million bus, and up 280 million bus, or 11%, from 2,635 million bus in 2007-08. Total use in 2008-09 was projected at 2,292 million bus, down 10 million bus from November due to a 10-million-bu decrease in projected food use, at 950 million bus, and down 38 million bus, or 2%, from 2,330 million bus a year earlier. Feed and residual use was unchanged from November at a projected 260 million bus, more than eight times the 31 million bus in 2007-08. Projected seed use at 82 million bus and exports at 1,000 million bus also were unchanged from a month earlier.

Higher projected imports reflected "abundant foreign supplies of feed quality wheat and extremely low ocean freight rates," the U.S.D.A. said. Reduced food use of wheat was based on the latest mill-grind data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

"High flour extraction rates are limiting year-to-year growth in wheat-milling use," the U.S.D.A. said.

The average price of all wheat was projected to range from $6.40@7 a bu, down 15c on each end of the range from November and compared with $6.48 in 2007-08.

Global 2008-09 wheat production was projected record large at 683.98 million tonnes, up 1.61 million tonnes from November and up 12% from 610.6 million tonnes in 2007-08. Ending stocks were projected at 147.35 million tonnes, up 2.1 million tonnes from November and up 23% from 119.36 million tonnes in 2007-08.

"(Production) increases for Canada, Brazil, EU-27 and Serbia more than offset a reduction for Argentina," the U.S.D.A. said.

Projected U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2009, was 1,474 million bus, up 350 million bus, or 31%, from 1,124 million bus in November but down 150 million bus, or 9%, from 1,624 million bus this year. Total U.S. corn supply in 2008-09 was projected at 13,659 million bus, unchanged from November but down 739 million bus, or 5%, from 14,398 million bus in 2007-08.

Total corn use was projected at 12,185 million bus in 2008-09, down 350 million bus from November and down 588 million bus, or 5%, from 2007-08. Feed and residual use was projected at 5,350 million bus, up 50 million bus from November but down 624 million bus, or 10%, from last year. Food and seed use, at 1,335 million bus, was unchanged from November and nearly unchanged from 1,338 million bus in 2007-08. The U.S.D.A. slashed projected corn use to make ethanol to 3,700 million bus, down 300 million bus, or 7.5%, from 4,000 million bus in November but up 674 million bus, or 22%, from 3,026 million bus in 2007-08. Projected exports were reduced by 100 million bus from November, to 1,800 million bus, and were down 636 million bus, or 26%, from 2,436 million bus in 2007-08.

"Financial problems for ethanol producers are reducing plant capacity utilization for existing plants and delaying plant openings for those facilities still under construction," the U.S.D.A. said. "Falling gasoline prices also have resulted in high relative prices for ethanol, reducing blender incentives." Lower production of distiller grains by the ethanol industry resulted in increased projections for feed and residual use of corn, the U.S.D.A. said.

The average corn price was projected to range from $3.65@4.35 a bu in 2008-09, down 35@45c from November and compared with $4.20 a bu last year.

World 2008-09 corn production was projected at 785.9 million tonnes, up 4.54 million tonnes from November but down 6.36 million tonnes from 2007-08. Ending stocks were projected at 123.83 million tonnes, up 13.71 million tonnes from November but down 3.97 million tonnes from 2007-08. Projected 2008-09 corn production was increased for China, EU-27, Canada and Ukraine, which more than offset reductions in South Africa and Brazil, the U.S.D.A. said. Increased ending stocks were mainly the result of reduced use of corn for ethanol in the United States.

Projected carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2009, was 205 million bus, unchanged from November and from 2008. Total supply was unchanged from November at 3,133 million bus. Total use was unchanged from November at 2,927 million bus as a 30-million bu reduction in projected crushings, to 1,715 million bus, was equaled by a 30-million-bu increase in projected exports, to 1,050 million bus. The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $8.25@9.75 a bu in 2008-09, down 85c from November and compared with $10.10 a bu last year.

Global 2008-09 soybean production was projected at 234.65 million tonnes, down 1.09 million tonnes from November but up 13.79 million tonnes from 2007-08. Ending stocks were projected at 54.19 million tonnes, up 130,000 tonnes from November and up 1.09 million tonnes from 2007-08.

Global rice production was projected at a record 434.59 million tonnes, up slightly from 434.28 million tonnes in November and up 3.45 million tonnes from 431.14 million tonnes a year earlier. Ending stocks were projected at 80.85 million tonnes, up 240,000 tonnes from November and up 2.26 million tonnes from 2007-08.

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