U.S.D.A. projects 2010 wheat carryover down 5%

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — In its first projections for the 2009-10 marketing year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2010, at 637 million bus, down 32 million bus, or 5%, from 669 million bus estimated for 2009 and up 108% from 306 million bus in 2008.

The projected 2010 U.S.D.A. carryover was below average pre-report trade expectations.

"The 2009-10 outlook for U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies and use as lower production more than offsets higher beginning stocks and reduced export prospects outweigh expected gains in domestic use," the U.S.D.A. said in its May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,026 million bus for 2009-10, down 19% from 2,500 million bus in 2008-09, based on forecast winter wheat outturn of 1,502 million bus and projected spring wheat (durum and other than durum) production of 524 million bus using planting intentions and trendline data for yield and abandonment.

Total wheat supply was projected at 2,810 million bus for 2009-10, down 4% from 2,930 million bus in the current year "despite the highest carry-in since 2002-03," the U.S.D.A. said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2009-10 were projected at 900 million bus, down 110 million bus, or 11%, from 1,010 million bus in the current year and 29% below 2007-08 exports of 1,264 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2009-10 at 955 million bus, up 33 million bus from the current year, feed and residual use at 240 million bus, down 10 million bus, and seed use at 78 million bus, down 1 million bus.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2009-10 was projected to fall in a range of $4.70@5.70 a bus, down from $6.85 estimated in 2008-09 and $6.48 in 2007-08.

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2008-09 were reduced by 27 million bus from the April forecast, to 669 million bus, as a 3-million-bu decrease in estimated food use was more than offset by a 30-million-bu increase in estimated exports.

While the U.S.D.A. did not yet make 2009-10 wheat by class projections, data for 2008-09 were revised slightly. Hard winter wheat ending stocks were forecast at 267 million bus, down 9 million bus from April as a 1-million-bu decrease in domestic use, at 462 million bus, more than offset a 10-million-bu increase in exports, at 445 million bus.

Hard spring stocks were reduced 14 million bus, to 159 million bus, as a 5-million-bu reduction in total supply, at 627 million bus, and a 10-million-bu increase in exports, at 215 million bus, was only slightly offset by a 1-million-bu decrease in domestic use, at 252 million bus.

Soft red wheat ending stocks were forecast at 164 million bus, up 5 million bus due to a like increase in total supply, at 700 million bus.

White wheat ending stocks were estimated at 52 million bus, down 10 million bus due to a like increase in exports, at 140 million bus.

Durum ending stocks were raised 1 million bus to 27 million bus in 2008-09.

Global 2009-10 wheat production was projected at 657.62 million tonnes, down 4% from the previous year’s record large outturn of 682.68 million tonnes.

Global wheat use was projected at 642.77 million tonnes, up 1% from 635.7 million tonnes in 2008-09. World trade was projected at 123.71 million tonnes, down 5% from 129.78 million tonnes in the current year. World wheat ending stocks for 2009-10 were projected at 181.9 million tonnes, up 9% from 167 million tonnes this year and the highest in eight years, the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was projected at 1,145 million bus, down 28% from 1,600 million bus in 2009. The U.S.D.A. number was below average trade expectations.

Corn production was forecast at 12,090 million bus, down 11 million bus from 2008, based on expected lower plantings more than offsetting higher yields. Total supply for 2009-10 was projected at 13,705 million bus, down 35 million bus from the current year.

Feed and residual use were projected at 5,250 million bus, down 100 million bus from 2008-09. Food and seed use were projected at 1,310 million bus, up 20 million bus from this year.

Use of corn for the production of ethanol in 2009-10 was projected at 4,100 million bus, up 350 million bus, or 9%, from 3,750 million bus in 2008-09.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $3.70@4.50 a bu, compared with $4.10@4.30 this year and $4.20 in 2007-08.

World corn ending stocks for 2009-10 were projected at 128.19 million tonnes, down 11.39 million tonnes from 2008-09. World corn production was projected at 785.14 million tonnes, down 2.69 million tonnes from this year, total use at 796.52 million tonnes, up 17.92 million tonnes, and exports at 81.14 million tonnes, up 4.21 million tonnes.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2010, was projected at 230 million bus, up 100 million bus, or 77%, from 130 million bus in the current year but below trade expectations.

Production was projected at 3,195 million bus, up 8% from 2,959 million bus in 2008, "reflecting a small increase in harvested area and a trend yield of 42.6 bus per acre (compared with 39.6 bus in 2008)," the U.S.D.A. said. Crushings for 2009-10 were projected at 1,675 million bus, up 2% from 1,640 million bus this year. Exports were projected at 1,260 million bus, up 2% from 1,240 million bus this year.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $8.45@10.45 a bus, compared with $9.85 this year and $10.10 in 2007-08.

Global soybean production was projected at 241.72 million bus in 2009-10, up 14% from 212.79 million tonnes this year. Total use was projected at 231.49 million tonnes, up 4% from 222.49 million tonnes in 2008-09, and exports at 75.3 million tonnes, up 3% from 73.18 million tonnes. Ending stocks were projected at 51.88 million tonnes, up 22% from 42.55 million tonnes in the current year.

U.S. rice production was projected at 224 million cwts, up 10% from 203.7 million cwts in 2008. Carryover of rice on Aug. 1, 2010 was projected at 39.2 million cwts, up 69% from 23.2 million cwts this year. The average price of U.S. rice was projected to range from $10.50@11.50 a cwt, well below $15.75@16.25 in the current year and compared with $12.80 in 2007-08.

Global rice production in 2009-10 was projected at a record 448.14 million tonnes, up 1% from 443.65 million tonnes in 2008-09. World use was projected record high at 443.21 million tonnes, up 2% from 434.49 million tonnes in the current year. Exports were projected at 29.69 million tonnes for 2009-10, up 4% from 28.67 million tonnes this year. Ending stocks were projected at 94.73 million tonnes, up 5% from 89.8 million tonnes in the current year.

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