U.S.D.A. projects lower corn carryover from August

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2009, at 1,018 million bus, down 115 million bus, or 15%, from 1,133 million bus projected in August and down 558 million bus, or 35%, from 1,576 million bus this year.

Projected carryover of soybeans on Sept. 1, 2009, was unchanged at 135 million bus but was down 5 million bus from 2007-08.

Expected wheat carryover on June 1, 2009, also was unchanged from August at 574 million bus but was up 268 million bus, or 88%, from 306 million bus the previous year. All 2008-09 U.S. wheat supply and use numbers were unchanged from August except for the projected average farm price of $6.70@7.80 a bu, which was narrowed 20c on each end of the price range and compared with $6.48 a bu in 2007-08.

Global 2008-09 wheat production was projected record large at 676.3 million tonnes, up 5.5 million tonnes from August and up 11% from 610.9 million tonnes in 2007-08. Ending stocks were projected at 140 million tonnes, up 3.7 million tonnes from August and up 21.4 million tonnes from the previous year.

Total U.S. corn supply in 2008-09 was projected at 13,663 million bus, down 1.5% from August due to a 2% reduction in projected 2008 corn production. Feed and residual use was projected at 5,200 million bus, down 100 million bus from August. Food, seed and industrial use, including 4,100 million bus for ethanol, was unchanged from August at 5,445 million bus. Projected exports also were unchanged at 2,000 million bus.

World 2008-09 corn production was projected at 783 million tonnes, down 6.6 million tonnes from August and down 1% from 2007-08. Ending stocks were projected at 109.9 million tonnes, down 2.4 million tonnes from August and down 13.5 million tonnes from 2007-08.

Total U.S. soybean supply in 2008-09 was projected at 3,084 million bus, down 32 millon bus from August and down 3% from 2007-08. Projected crushings were 1,785 million bus, down 30 million bus from August, while exports were unchanged at 1,000 million bus.

Global 2008-09 soybean production was projected at 238 million tonnes, up slightly from August and up 9% from 2007-08. Ending stocks were projected at 51.28 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from August and up 1 million tonnes from the previous year.

Global rice production was projected at a record 432 million tonnes, up 1.2 million from August due to increases in India, Pakistan and Thailand.

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