U.S.D.A. projects wheat carryover up 7% from July

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2009, at 574 million bus, up 37 million bus, or 7%, from 537 million bus projected in July, and up 268 million bus, or 88%, from 306 million bus in 2008.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,462 million bus for 2008-09, up slightly from June and up 19% from 2,067 million bus in 2007-08. Total wheat supply in 2008-09 was projected at 2,868 million bus, up 2 million bus from July and up 9% from 2,635 million bus last year.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2008-09 were projected at 1,000 million bus, unchanged from July but down 264 million bus, or 21%, from 1,264 million bus in 2007-08.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2008-09 at 960 million bus, unchanged from July and up 12 million bus from 2007-08. Feed and residual use was projected at 250 million bus, down 35 million bus from July but more than eight times up the revised 30 million bus in 2007-08. Seed use was unchanged from July at 84 million bus.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2008-09 was projected to range from $6.50@8 a bu, down 25c from July but above $6.48 in 2007-08.

Global 2008-09 wheat production was projected record large at 670.75 million tonnes, up 6.51 million tonnes from July and up 10% from 610.54 million tonnes in 2007-08. Ending stocks were projected at 136.16 million tonnes, up 3.1 million tonnes from July and up 20.95 million tonnes from the previous year.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2009, was projected at 1,133 million bus, up 300 million bus, or 36%, from 833 million bus in July but down 443 million bus, or 28%, from 1,576 million bus in 2008.

World 2008-09 corn production was projected at 789.58 million tonnes, up 14.29 million tonnes from July and up 430,000 tonnes from 2007-08. Ending stocks were projected at 112.38 million tonnes, up 7.07 million tonnes from July but down 10.08 million tonnes from the previous year.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2009, was projected at 135 million bus, down 5 million bus from 140 million bus in July and equal to carryout forecast for the current year.

Global 2008-09 soybean production was projected at 237.36 million tonnes, down 440,000 tonnes from July but up 19.13 million tonnes from 2007-08. Ending stocks were projected at 49.28 million tonnes, up 410,000 tonnes from July and up 30,000 tonnes from the previous year.

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