U.S.D.A. raises '09 wheat carryover

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2009, at 537 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 10%, from 487 million bus projected in June, and up 231 million bus, or 75%, from the upwardly revised 2008 carryover of 306 million bus.

The projected 2009 U.S.D.A. carryover was nearly equal to average pre-report trade estimates of 538 million bus.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,461 million bus for 2008-09, up 29 million bus from 2,432 million bus in June and up 19% from 2,067 million bus in 2007-08, based on forecast winter wheat outturn of 1,864 million bus, spring wheat production of 507 million bus and durum of 90 million bus.

Total wheat supply in 2008-09 was projected at 2,866 million bus, up 80 million bus, or 3%, from 2,786 million bus in June and up 235 million bus, or 9%, from 2,631 million bus last year.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2008-09 were projected at 1,000 million bus, unchanged from June but down 267 million bus, or 21%, from 1,267 million bus in 2007-08.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2008-09 at 960 million bus, unchanged from June and up 10 million bus from 2007-08. Feed and residual use was projected at 285 million bus, up 30 million bus from June and more than fourteen times the downward revised 20 million bus in 2007-08. Seed use was unchanged from June at 84 million bus but down 4 million bus from last year.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2008-09 was projected to range from $6.75@8.25, unchanged from June but above $6.48 in 2007-08.

Global 2008-09 wheat production was projected record large at 664.24 million tonnes, up 1.34 million tonnes from June and up 9% from 610.77 million in 2007-08.

"This month’s increase reflects higher production in Australia, EU-27 and the United States, which more than offsets a reduction in Iran," the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2009, was projected at 833 million bus, up 160 million bus, or 24%, from 673 million bus in June but down 765 million bus, or 49% from 1,598 million bus in 2008. The 2009 U.S.D.A. number was above trade expectations that averaged near 820 million bus.

Corn production was projected at 11,715 million bus, down slightly from 11,735 million bus projected in June and down 1,359 million bus, or 10%, from 13,074 million bus in 2007. The average yield for U.S. corn was projected at 148.4 bus per acre, down 0.5 bus from June and down 2.7 bus from 151.1 bus in 2007. The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $5.50@6.50 a bu, up 20c from $5.30@6.30 in June and compared with $4.25@4.45 this year.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2009, was projected at 140 million bus, down 35 million bus from 175 million bus in June but up 15 million bus from 125 million bus in the current year. The U.S.D.A. number was near the average trade estimate of 139 million bus for 2009.

Soybean production was projected at 3,000 million bus, down 105 million bus from June but up 415 million bus, or 16%, from 2,585 million bus in 2007.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $12@13.50 a bus, up $1 a bu from $11@12.50 in May and up from $10.15 this year.

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