U.S.D.A. raises 2009 wheat carryover 4 million bus

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2009, at 487 million bus, up 4 million bus from 483 million bus projected in May, and up 92% from the upwardly revised 2008 carryover of 254 million bus.

The projected 2009 U.S.D.A. carryover was below average pre-report trade estimates near 496 million bus.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,432 million bus for 2008-09, up 40 million bus from 2,392 million in May and up 18% from 2,067 million bus in 2007-08, based on forecast winter wheat outturn of 1,817 million bus and projected spring wheat production of 615 million bus using planting intentions and trendline data.

Total wheat supply in 2008-09 was projected at 2,786 million bus, up 54 million bus from 2,732 million bus in May and up 6% from 2,618 million bus in the current year.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2008-09 were projected at 1,000 million bus, up 25 million bus from May but down 265 million bus from 2007-08.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2008-09 at 960 million bus, unchanged from May and up 10 million bus from the current year. Feed and residual use was projected at 255 million bus, up 25 million bus from May and more than four times the 60 million bus in 2007-08. Seed use was unchanged from May at 84 million bus.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2008-09 was projected to range from $6.75@8.25, up from $6.60@8.10 in May and above $6.50 in 2007-08.

Global 2008-09 wheat production was projected record large at 662.9 million tonnes, up 6.9 million tonnes from May and up 9% from 610.77 million in 2007-08.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2009, was projected at 673 million bus, down 100 million bus from May and down 53% from 1,433 million bus in 2008. The U.S.D.A. number was well below average trade expectations that averaged near 736 million bus.

Corn production was forecast at 11,735 million bus, down 3% from 12,125 million bus in May and down 10% from 13,074 million bus in 2007. The average yield for U.S. corn was projected at 148.9 bus per acre, down 5 bus from 153.9 bus projected in May and down from 151.1 bus in 2007. The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $5.30@6.30 a bu, up from $5@6 in May and compared with $4.25@4.50 this year.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2009, was projected at 175 million bus, down 10 million bus from 185 million bus in May, up 40% from 125 million bus in the current year and below average trade expectations of 180 million bus.

Production was projected at 3,105 million bus, unchanged from May and up 20% from 2,585 million bus in 2007.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $11@12.50 a bus, up from $10.50@12 in May and from $10 this year.

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