U.S.D.A. raises 2010 wheat carryover 10 million bus

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates today forecast U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2010, at 647 million bus, up 10 million bus from its May forecast but down 22 million bus, or 3%, from 669 million bus in 2009.

The projected 2010 U.S.D.A. carryover projection was above average pre-report trade expectations near 606 million bus.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,016 million bus for 2009-10, down 10 million bus from the May forecast and down 484 million bus, or 19%, from 2,500 million bus in 2008-09.

Total wheat supply was projected at 2,800 million bus for 2009-10, down 10 million bus from May and down 130 million bus, or 4%, from 2,930 million bus in 2008-09.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2009-10 were projected at 900 million bus, unchanged from May but down 110 million bus, or 11%, from 1,010 million bus in 2008-09.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2009-10 at 955 million bus, unchanged from May but up 33 million bus from the previous year. Feed and residual use was projected at 220 million bus, down 20 million bus from the May forecast and down 30 million bus from 2008-09. Seed use was projected at 78 million bus, unchanged from May and down 1 million bus from 2008-09.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2009-10 was projected to fall in a range of $4.90@5.90 a bu, up from $4.70@5.70 projected in May but down from $6.85 estimated in 2008-09.

The U.S.D.A. did not yet make 2009-10 wheat by class projections and left unchanged from May its 2008-09 ending stock projections for hard winter wheat at 267 million bus, hard spring at 159 million bus and soft red at 164 million bus. White wheat ending stocks for 2008-09 were estimated at 57 million bus, up 5 million bus from May, and durum ending stocks at 22 million bus, down 5 million bus from the previous month.

Global 2009-10 wheat production was projected at 656.06 million tonnes, down from 657.62 million tonnes projected in May and down 4% from the previous year’s record large outturn of 682.18 million tonnes.

Global wheat use was projected at 641.81 million tonnes, down from 642.77 million tonnes in May but up 1% from 633.75 million tonnes in 2008-09. World trade was projected at 123.22 million tonnes, down from 123.71 million tonnes in May and down 7% from 132.26 million tonnes in 2008-09. World wheat ending stocks for 2009-10 were projected at 182.65 million tonnes, up from 181.9 million tonnes in May and up 8% from 168.4 million tonnes the previous year.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was projected at 1,090 million bus, down 55 million bus, or 5%, from 1,145 million bus projected in May and down 32% from 1,600 million bus in 2009. The U.S.D.A. number was above average trade expectations.

Corn production was forecast at 11,935 million bus, down 1% from 12,090 million bus projected in May and down 1% from 12,101 million bus in 2008, as "continued planting delays through late May reduce yield prospects, especially in the eastern Corn Belt," the U.S.D.A. said. Total supply for 2009-10 was projected at 13,550 million bus, down 155 million bus from the current year.

Feed and residual use in 2009-10 were projected at 5,150 million bus, down 100 million bus from the May forecast and down 200 million bus from 2008-09. Food and seed use were projected at 1,310 million bus, unchanged from May and up 20 million bus from this year.

Use of corn for the production of ethanol in 2009-10 was projected at 4,100 million bus, unchanged from May and up 350 million bus from 2008-09.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $3.90@4.70 a bus in 2009-10, compared with $3.70@4.50 a bu in May and with $4.10@4.30 this year.

World corn ending stocks for 2009-10 were projected at 125.46 million tonnes, down from 128.19 million tonnes projected in May and down 9% from 138.54 million tonnes in 2008-09.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2010, was projected at 210 million bus, down 20 million bus from May but up 100 million bus, or 91%, from 110 million bus in the current year. The U.S.D.A. numbers were below analysts’ estimates.

Production was projected at 3,195 million bus, unchanged from May and up 8% from 2,959 million bus in 2008. Crushings for 2009-10 were projected at 1,675 million bus, unchanged from May and up 25 million bus from 1,650 million bus this year. Exports were projected at a record 1,260 million bus, unchanged from May and up from a previous record 1,250 million bus this year.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $9@11 a bus, up from $8.45@10.45 a bus projected in May and compared with $10 this year.

Global soybean ending stocks were projected at 51.02 million tonnes, down from 51.88 million tonnes in May but up 22% from 41.85 million tonnes in the current year.

U.S. rice production was projected at 220 million cwts, down 4 million cwts from May but up 8% from 203.7 million cwts in 2008. Carryover of rice on Aug. 1, 2010 was projected at 36.2 million cwts, down from 39.2 million cwts in May but up 56% from 23.2 million cwts this year. The average price of U.S. rice was projected to range from $10.50@11.50 a cwt, unchanged from May but well below $15.75@16.25 in the current year.

Global rice ending stocks were projected at 94.99 million tonnes, up from 94.73 million tonnes in May and up 5% from 89.91 million tonnes in 2008-09.

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